VIX in cooling mode

With US equities building gains across the day, the VIX was in classic cooling mode, settling -8.6% @ 15.42. Near term outlook is for Friday gains to sp'2075/80.. and that will probably equate to VIX in the mid/low 14s. There is the threat of VIX exploding upward after the next FOMC.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffice to say... VIX looks set for the 14s... but next week, if Yellen upsets the market... then VIX will break and hold the 17s... and then its a case of whether the next equity down wave goes to sp'2000.. .or 1940. If the latter.. then VIX in 25/30 zone is briefly viable.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed with rather significant gains, sp +25pts @ 2065. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.2% and 1.7% respectively. Near term outlook offers a continued rally to 2075/80... but there is very significant risk of the market reversing from there.


sp'60min

Summary

*I'm tired... so... this needs to be brief!

Suffice to say... Friday looks set for further gains... but I'm guessing we'll get stuck somewhere around the daily 10MA of 2078/80 or so... where there is also a price gap.

There is a real threat of sp'2000... or even 1940 by end month - if Yellen upsets the market next Wednesday... but more on that later.
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more later.. on the VIX

3pm update - a day for the bulls

US equities look set to close the day with significant net gains... somewhere close to the 50dma of sp'2059. VIX is naturally cooling, -7% in the 15s. Metals are weak.. Gold -$1. Oil continues to slide -1.7%... in the $48s.


sp'60min

sp'daily3 - fib retrace

Summary

Price structure on the hourly is a classic bullish F flag... bodes for 2075/80 tomorrow.
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re: fib retrace... the bearish outlook right now is that this is just a bounce... upside target would be 2075/80.. and then down to 2000 after the next FOMC.

Ultra bearish case is rising support on the weekly in the sp'1940s... but I realise that sounds like crazy talk.
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back at the close.