Volatility breaks a little higher

With equities losing the sp'2100 level, the VIX broke the downward trend, settling higher by 6.3% @ 13.86. (intra high 14.69. Near term outlook offers the sp'2060s, which should equate to the VIX in the 17s... if briefly. The big 20 threshold looks out of range.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Little to add.

Equity bears at best might see the sp'2060s in the near term, and that should equate to VIX maxing out somewhere in the 17s... perhaps 18s. Certainly, a daily close in the 20s look highly unlikely in the near term.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed moderately lower, sp -9pts @ 2107 (intra low 2098). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.5% and -0.6% respectively. Near term outlook offers a minor retrace to the 50dma in the sp'2060s, whilst the broader trend remains powerfully to the upside.


sp'60min

Summary

In the scheme of things... a day of mere moderate weakness, but it does open the door to a minor retrace into the sp'2060s.

There is plenty of data in the coming days.. so Mr Market will have plenty of excuse for some more 'moderately' dynamic price action.

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - weakness into the close

US equities look set for renewed weakness into the close, with the sp' <2100, along with VIX in the 14s. Metals remains a touch weak, Gold -$1. Oil is battling to hold gains, +1.1%.


sp'daily3 - fib retrace

vix'daily3

Summary

So... lets see if we get a close <sp'2100
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Notable weakness, STX -4.7%.... having seen a spike-fail yesterday.