Monday, 23 February 2015

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately mixed, -0.7pts @ 2109. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and u/c respectively. Near term outlook offers a cycle high of 2110, with a downside target zone of 2060/40 into next week.


sp'60min


VIX'60min


Summary

*a minor touch of strength into the close, but nothing of significance.
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So.. equity bulls failed to break a new cycle high, but neither did the bears show any downside power.

Market remains clawing 'broadly higher', even a move to the 50dma in the 2050s next week will do nothing to the broader trend.
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a daily wrap at 8pm EST

3pm update - weakness into the close

It would seem highly probable that the equity bulls will be unable (for the first time in over a week) to break new highs into the close. It will only take a little closing weakness to take out the morning low of sp'2103, to provide a daily close in the 2090s. Oil has resumed lower after speculation on an OPEC meeting, -2.8%.


sp'60min


USO, daily


Summary

*Oil remains highly volatile intraday... swinging from -3% to -0.7%.. and back to -3%
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Again, price action remains relatively subdued.. as most are waiting to see what Yellen has to say to the US Senate tomorrow morning.
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Notable strength: AAPL +2.3% in the $132s.

2pm update - the chop continues

US equities remain a touch weak, having seen a minor rally - due to Oil clawing from -3.0% to -0.7%. Metals remain highly vulnerable on rising support, Gold +$1. Equities remain in minor chop mode.. ahead of the Yellen tomorrow morning.


sp'60min


GLD, daily


Summary

*Gold sure looks weak, failed morning rally... highly vulnerable to renewed significant weakness.
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As for equities, market will typically turn around 2.30pm.. so.. unless the bulls can break sp'2110 within the next 30mins... there is likelihood of weakness into the close...

Seeking a break of the morning low of sp'2103.