Closing Brief

US equities settled moderately mixed, sp -0.2pts @ 2068. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.3% and -0.1% respectively. Near term outlook still offers a down wave to the 2025/20 zone, which would likely equate to VIX 20/22s.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

*a really messy closing hour... with a rather sickening break (if briefly) above key resistance of sp'2072.
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Another pretty tedious day.. as Mr Market is trying to fathom whether there will be an agreement between Greece and the rest of the EU.

It would seem likely the Greeks will stretch this out into the latter part of February, at which point Germany will likely concede something... and reach a lame compromise to kick the can another year or two.

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awaiting earnings from TLSA, CSCO, WFM, NVDA.

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*daily wrap @ 8pm EST.

3pm update - tricky close to call

Equities are seeing renewed strength on an updated ceasefire call for the Ukraine... but remain under key resistance of sp'2072. VIX remains choppy in the mid 17s. Metals are set to close weak, Gold -$13, with Silver -0.6%


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

It is a particularly tricky close to call today... not least with sporadic news reports set to kick the market either way.

Best guess.. the 2072 line holds... with a down wave to 2025/20 before the weekend.

Lets be clear though, if market can break above 2072... then we'll keep on rising to new historic highs for most indexes.
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yours tired.... and holding VIX-long overnight.

3.27pm.... with a press release announcing King O' declares ISIS a 'grave threat'... the market jumps above resistance.... sp'2073.... VIX loses the 17s.

Barring news that the Greeks are going to refuse an initial deal/compromise.... equity bulls are taking control.... urghh


3.32pm... King O' set to appear to issue his decrees... as all Royalty do.

Without question... damn annoying. and if we don't close <2070.... it bodes badly (at least technically) for the bears into the long weekend.


3.36pm.. twitchy market... 5min cycle maxes out at 2073... pulls back to 2068... annoying just about everyone....

CNBC cuts its over feed... switches to NBC, lol (well.. it did on my feed).

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3.50pm... twitchy price action... indexes set to close flat.. fractionally red... in any case.. bears should be rattled at the break to 2073

2pm update - increasing concern

US equities are starting to weaken... with the wave from sp'2048 to 2070 seemingly maxed out. A daily close in the 2045/35 zone remains viable, which would likely equate to VIX 19s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$14, with Silver -0.7%


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*I remain long-VIX from the 17.30s... would consider an exit in the 19s... certainly by the Friday close.
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So... a little weakness... and the recent downside target zone of 2025/20 remains viable by the weekend, although it sure is taking longer than expected.

With 2hrs still left of the trading day, there is plenty of time for the market to unravel.

Notable weakness, oil/gas drillers, RIG -5%, SDRL -4%... see 'fair value' page for more on those two.


2.04pm... First target on VIX is 18.00... I'd settle for any daily close in the 18s... but 19s are viable... if sp'2045/35.


2.12pm.. It would appear the market rallied on a news report that there is a renewed ceasefire agreement for the Ukraine. Yeah... that is clearly working out just fine for those locals as the chemical plants light up at night like a tactical nuke or MOAB...



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stay tuned