Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately weak, sp -8pts @ 2046. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.0% and -0.8% respectively. Near term outlook is for sp'2025/20 zone... which would seem highly probable with continued concern about a looming GREXIT.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

*I'm tired... so I'm keeping things short.
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Suffice to say... it would seem that bears will see a major down wave tomorrow.... possibly all the way to the 2025/20 zone. No doubt, that will get many of the doomers somewhat excited, but.... considering last weeks hyper-gains.... it will only make for a 50% retrace or so.

I will add, I do think it rather important for the market to make new highs within the next few weeks.

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A daily wrap at 8pm EST

3pm update - it remains a bear flag

US equities break a marginal new daily low of sp'2046, although VIX has not broken above the opening (black fail candle) high of 19.28. Metals are holding gains, Gold +$6, but the 'shiny relics' look set for further sig' downside this week.


sp'60min

GLD, daily

Summary

So.. not the most exciting of days, but market looks set for the 2020s... which is certainly within range for tomorrow.

It won't take much of a 'spooky' Greek/ECB headline to give the market an excuse to retrace some of last weeks hyper-gains.
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... I remain tired... and am more than content to hold SLV (short) overnight....

back at the close

2pm update - bear flag

US equities remain moderately lower. Price structure is a rather clear bear flag on the smaller 60/15min cycles, and it strongly bodes for the sp'2020s tomorrow/Wednesday... which will likely equate to VIX back in the 20s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*writing from my bed... surviving on tea and chocolates!
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So... a bear flag on in the indexes... and I'm surely not the only one who notices it. Market should have a fair chance of closing at the lows of the day.. with the 2025/20 zone tomorrow... or Wednesday at the latest.

There is naturally a corresponding bull flag on the VIX hourly... the setup looks pretty clear, strongly favouring the equity bears.

Notable weakness: AA -5.3%... having tested the 200dma... but it'll probably be trading under it tomorrow!