Thursday, 5 February 2015

VIX cools some more

With equities holding rather significant gains across the day, the VIX was in melt mode, settling -8.1% @ 16.85   (intra low 16.67). Near term outlook is offering a break above resistance of sp'2064, which would likely equate to VIX in the 15/14s.


VIX'60min


VIX'daily3


Summary

Suffice to say... VIX looks set to fall into the weekend. The Monday peak of the 22s now looks a long way up... and if the sp'500 does indeed manage a break >sp'2064, the VIX will fall to the low teens.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed higher for the third day of four this week, sp +20pts @ 2062. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.9% and 1.4% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish into the monthly jobs data, with a viable weekly close in the sp'2070s... with VIX 15/14s.


sp'60min


Summary

*somewhat surprisingly, equities came close to taking out the 2064 resistance.... bodes in favour of the equity bulls tomorrow morning.
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So... a decisive daily close above the 50dma of sp'2044, and it bodes for upside into the weekend.

For anyone still holding short from Monday morning... gods help you... what about trading stops?

Have a good evening

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*the usual bits and pieces across the evening... to wrap up the day.

3pm update - chop into the close

US equities look set to close higher (barring any random comments from the ECB), with a daily close just under next key resistance of sp'2064. Friday looks set for a further push higher, with a viable weekly close in the 2070/75 zone. Metals are back to flat, whilst Oil is cooling from the earlier highs, +3.3%


sp'60min


Summary

So... unless the ECB want to spoil the party... the equity bull manaics look set for an important close above the 50dma of sp'2044.

Market will likely deem tomorrow's jobs data as 'acceptable'.. and jump above 2064 at the open.

VIX remains cooling, -5% in the 17s... a weekly close in the 15/14s remains viable... if sp'2070s.

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Ahead of earnings, TWTR +1% in the $41s. 


3.39pm... Market making a surprising attempt to take out 2064 today.... ahead of the jobs data. A daily close of 2062/63 would be a real tease.. to bulls and bears alike.

Notable weakness, airlines, UAL -2.6%