Friday, 23 January 2015

Volatility significantly lower across the week

Whilst equities saw minor weak chop across the day, the VIX was also generally weak (intra low 15.81), but managed a minor rally into the close, settling +1.6% @ 16.66. The VIX saw a net weekly decline of a very significant -20.5%.


VIX'daily3



VIX'weekly


Summary

There is little to add.

VIX saw a major down swing... and the big 20 threshold has been lost.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle on the weekly chart will offer a bearish cross in two weeks time. If that is the case, it will bode for 3-4 weeks of further equity upside...taking us into late February.. with the sp'2100s.

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more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities settled moderately mixed, sp -11pts @ 2051 (intra high 2062). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.1% and -1.8% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish, with a straight up run into sp'2100s.


sp'60min


Summary

... and another week comes to a close.

A rather important week.. with the ECB deciding it now needs to resort to buying Govt' bonds with money it prints from nowhere. No doubt.. that will end well for all those in the EU.

Despite the weakness into the close, all indexes saw net weekly gains... and there looks to be further upside across next week.

Have a good weekend
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*the usual bits and pieces across the evening... to wrap up the day.

3pm update - a week for the bulls

US equities are set for the first net weekly gain of the year, with a gain of almost 2% for the sp'500. Metals are ending the week on a down note, Gold -$12. Energy remains mixed, with Nat' gas +3.1%, whilst Oil -2.0%.


sp'weekly7


sp'60min


Summary

Thank the gods... its almost the weekend!

Regardless of the exact close, equity bulls have held the market well today, and look set for 2070s next Monday.

Weekly cycles are offering the 2120s in the near term, although that will likely take at least two weeks.
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back at the close... unless something 'interesting' happen before then.