Volatility holds the 20s into the weekend

Despite equities seeing significant gains into the opex close, the VIX still managed to hold above the key 20 threshold, settling -5.9% @ 21.07. Regardless of any equity chop/weakness next Tue/Wed, with the ECB set to launch major QE, the VIX looks set to fall into end month.


VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

*across the week, the VIX gained a very significant 20.1%. The weekly candle though is a little spiky, and is likely indicative that a cycle high might be in.
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Suffice to say.. a somewhat rare (at least compared to 2012-14) weekly close in the 20s.

Even if the market falls next Tue/Wed (for whatever reason)... VIX looks set to broadly fall into end month/early February.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed significantly higher, sp +26pts @ 2019. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.2% and 1.9% respectively. With the closing hour strength, the viability of a hit of the 200dma has greatly decreased. In any case... broader upside... once the ECB announce QE.


sp'60min

Summary

... and another week in market land comes to a close.

Congrats to all those who didn't get blown up by the FX changes!
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The closing hour was a major disappointment, and clearly, a fair few bears were either short-stopped out, or simply closed out for the long weekend.

The chance of renewed downside to sp'1965... is much reduced.
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Have a good.... THREE day weekend :)

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*the usual bits and pieces across the evening.. to wrap up the week

3pm update - another fun week in market land

The smaller 60/15min cycles are offering a rollover into the close, not least ahead of a 3 day weekend. Regardless of the exact close, equity bears are set for the third consecutive net weekly decline. Further weakness seems due next Tue/Wed... before the ECB print machine is spun up.


sp'60min

Summary

*I probably should refrain from adding colourful arrows on my charts.. but hey.. its my best guess.
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The last hour of what has been a pretty exciting week, not least with the SNB causing all sorts of havoc.

A number of FX brokers are having serious issues... not least FXCM. Here in the UK, Alpari have imploded... see HERE. Looks like West Ham United are going to need a new primary sponsor, lol
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Seriously though... I look at the Swiss move as a pre-cursor to all sorts of 'system' trouble across the next few years.

Notable strength: copper miners, FCX and TCK both higher by 4%
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3.12pm... Leucadia funds FXCM with 300 million... .for $250 mill of 2yr bonds....... with a further claim to 75% of the company if its sold off...

What a mess!

Market wants to sell lower into the close... sp'2008 , VIX set to close higher.


3.37pm.. Well.. so much for the sell down... sp'2012.... next zone 2015/19...

In any case.. still viable downside next Tue/Wed....


3.40pm.. short-stops getting hit hard now... sp'2015