Volatility holding the 20s

With US equities falling for the fourth consecutive day, the VIX was naturally still on the rise (intra high 23.34), settling +4.5% @ 21.48. Near term outlook offers a hit of the 200dma of sp'1965.. and that will likely equate to VIX 25/27 zone. From there... VIX to cool into early February.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffice to say, VIX higher for the fourth day.. naturally a mirror to the 4 days of equity downside.

The daily black-fail candle does bode in favour of the equity bulls, but on this occasion... I'm still very open to a brief hit of the 200dma of sp'1965... before VIX maxes out.
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more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed lower for the fourth consecutive day, sp -11pts @ 2011 (intra low 1988). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.9% and -0.3% respectively. Near term outlook is offering a hit of the 200dma around sp'1965. From there... upside into end month.. via 'inspiration' from the ECB.


sp'60min

Summary

*not surprisingly, some latter day gains...  the closing candle is still within the short term down trend. 
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So.. a fourth day for the bears... but as ever.. the declines can't last forever. There remains TRILLIONS of new money looking to find a home.. and the US equity market remains the prime place.

There remains a real chance of a washout low around sp'1965... but regardless.. we're headed higher from there.
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Meanwhile... for those in the UK... and even yours truly in London city... there IS a storm coming this night...



Yours... with all bunker doors/hatches... secured.
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more later... on the VIX
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UPDATE 4.12pm..

Samsung have just put in an offer for Blackberry....

BBRY, 5min

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No doubt.. Ticker guy.. aka Denniger just exploded.


Update 6.15pm.... BBRY denying the bid story... stock collapsing... two thirds of the gains have evaporated in AH.

see HERE for AH quote.. and related story details.

3pm update - a fourth day for the bears

US equities are set to close lower for the fourth consecutive day, with a daily close probably under the giant sp'2000 threshold. Oil has swung sharply higher, +3%... - for no known reason... helping the market claw back above the low of sp'1988


sp'60min

Summary

We're seeing sporadic little attempts to ramp... but still.. it will be a fourth day of declines. There is NO clear turn/floor yet.

Primary target remains the 200dma.. around sp'1965... that seems viable as early as tomorrow.

Those currently short.. should be mindful of next weeks ECB.. when the printers are about to be spun up for t-bond buying.
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...updates into the close..


3.09pm.. Hourly 10MA... now 2006.... first level for a bullish break.. but overall... it looks like 1960s... before this wave concludes.


3.20pm.. R2K Jumps.... now just -0.3%... a positive net daily close... just about viable. It still doesn't negate the chance of a hit of sp'1960s though.

VIX rapidly cooling, +5%... a red close would merit some consideration.
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3.31pm.. sp' 2011... bears getting short-stops hit.... sure is one messy day

*precious metals turning red.... as the 'fear bid' is lost.  Miner ETF.. GDX -2.7%


3.39pm.. Equity bull maniacs need a daily close of sp'2015 to break down trend... but that looks out of range.

In any case... day'4 for the bears... but the ECB printers are being plugged in.... ahead of next Thursday.


3.43pm.. R2K and Nasdaq... both with bullish reversal candles... bodes for renewed upside...rather than things 'spiralling outta control'.


3.50pm... Short term down trend.... being challenged.. sp'2012...  

Notable gains.. Nat' gas +11% .. something I've overlooked... the second strong day of gains.. a MAJOR breakout for gas on the daily cycle.


3.55pm.. the relative strength in the R2K should greatly concern those who are seeking much lower levels in the weeks ahead. The R2K is warning of renewed upside.. for the broader market.

... back at the close.