Friday, 5 December 2014

Volatility falls into the weekend

With equity bulls breaking new historic highs on 'good news is good news' employment data, the VIX naturally melted lower, settling -4.5% @ 11.82 (intra low 11.53). Across the week, the VIX declined by a very significant -11.3%.


VIX'daily3


VIX'weekly


Summary

There is little to add.

VIX remains very low, and with equity price action as it is - not least in the approaching 'Santa season' any spike much above the mid/upper teens looks highly unlikely.

At best, equity bears might briefly see VIX 17/20 zone.. before the next major equity up wave across spring 2015.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed a little higher, sp +3pts @ 2075, having broken new historic highs of Dow 17991 and sp'2079. With the USD higher by 0.7%, Gold and Oil were pressured lower by -$15 and -1.7% respectively.


sp'60min


Summary

... and another week in the crazy rigged casino comes to a close.

Seven weeks straight up.. from sp'1820 to 2079. Who would have dared suggest that by year end? Ohh yeah... Mr Carboni.. and Riley, both with their original target of the sp'2100s looking due in the near term. I'll be curious as to what they are saying in January.
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Have a good weekend everyone.
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A FULL set of updates across the evening.. to wrap up the week.

3pm update - a seventh week for the bulls

US equities look set for the seventh consecutive net weekly gain. with the sp'500 having climbed 259pts (14.2%) since the mid' Oct' low of 1820. Metals and oil are both set to end the week on a particularly negative note... pressured by the strong USD.


sp'60min


Summary

*hourly cycle is vulnerable to a bearish cross, but then.. thats been the case since Thursday morning.
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Regardless of the close... its been another week for the equity bulls.

The mid' Oct' low now looks a bizarrely long way down. Anyone expect sp'1700s any time before 2017/18 ?
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a long week.... I'll be back at the close.. to wrap up the week.
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3.46pm.. a touch of weakness in the closing hour...

You can tell I'm tired.. I'm losing the ability to type even semi-coherent sentences...