Volatility remains subdued

With equities remaining in a tight trading range, the VIX remains very subdued, settling -3.5% @ 13.31. Across the week the VIX gained 1.4%. Near term outlook offers the upper teens, but a break/hold above the 20 threshold looks highly unlikely in the rest of 2014.


VIX'daily'3

VIX'weekly

Summary

Little to add.

A moderate jump in the VIX seems a given before mid December, but even the 16/17s look difficult on the first push higher next week.

With no realistic hope of sub sp'1900s for some months, there seems ZERO point in being long VIX.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities settled the week with some mixed chop, sp' +0.5pts @ 2039. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled lower by -0.1%. Near term outlook continues to offer a retrace, but then.. that has been the case for the last two weeks... urghh.


sp'60min

Summary

A brief look at the hourly chart covering the last 22 trading days, clearly shows a market that is obviously tired.. having ramped from sp'1820.

We're due a retrace.. best guess remains sp'1980/50.
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Sincerely... have a good weekend everyone.

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*the usual bits and pieces to wrap up the week... across the evening.

3pm update - a fourth week for the bull maniacs

Equities look set for continued minor weak chop into the weekly close. Regardless of the exact close, with new historic highs set this week for the Dow, Trans, and sp'500, the bulls remain in full control. A reversal in the USD continues to help inspire commodities.


sp'weekly

Summary

Little reason to expect much price action into the weekly close...

Smaller 5/15/60min cycles are mixed, I suppose it could be argued for a touch of weakness into the close.. but in the scheme of things... it is barely worth speculating about.

With the metals holding strong gains, the miner ETF of GDX is +5.5%... having opened -2%. no doubt there will be a lot of chatter about this powerful reversal on the usual gold bug sites this weekend.

After all... metals have floored... right?   Yeah.. sure they have.
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3.32pm.. Tedious... VIX -1%.. with sp'2039.....

back at the close