Volatility flooring

Equities appear to have put in a key cycle top of sp'1991.. and the VIX is building a floor in the mid teens. VIX closed with moderate gains of 5.3% @ 15.15 (intra high 16.28). Near term outlook offers the 20/22 zone, if sp'1920s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffice to say... VIX has probably floored in the low 14s today. 13s now look out of range unless sp'2000s.. and frankly.. that does not look likely.
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VIX 20s look a rather simple upside target within the next 4-10 trading days.

Whether the VIX can break the recent high of 31.06.... difficult to say.. unless we break back under sp'1900.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities saw some moderate weakness, but closed only a little lower, sp -2pts @ 1982 (intra low 1969). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.5% and -0.3% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed weakness. at least down to the sp'1920s.. with VIX 20s.


sp'60min

Summary

.. and thus concludes a rather important Fed day.

QE3 is terminated.. and for the first time in over two years, the market will have to 'go it alone'.
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*with the smaller 5/15min equity cycles on the low side, I decided to sit out this afternoon.

I will look to go short tomorrow morning, somewhere in the 1990 area.. which might be a fine micro double top.
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*I will post on GDX, and the precious metals on my other pages.. later this evening.
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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - post QE weakness

US equities have seen some moderate weakness, along with a VIX that spiked +11% into the low 16s. The smaller 5/15min index cycles though, are warning of a very viable wave higher to re-test this mornings high of 1991.... early tomorrow.


sp'15min

Summary

To be clear... I remain a watcher...

Best guess.. a micro double top of sp'1990/91.. early tomorrow... which will make for a great short entry.. since there should be a lot of divergences all over the place.

With the Fed out of the way.. and QE concluded... the bears have a very good setup.
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Metals remain very weak. Gold -$14.. which is destroying the miners.. the ETF of GDX -3.1% in the 19s.... on its way to the $15s... along with Gold $1000.

GDX, daily

... carnage... 19.70s...
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3.17pm.. Miners continue to feel the pressure of falling metals. .. GDX -4.4%.

Equities still look VERY vulnerable to another up wave to 1990 tomorrow morning. especially if Mr Market decides the GDP data is acceptable.


3.26pm.. chop chop... sp'1975.. with VIX 15.30s....

A daily close of 1980.. with VIX 14s.. seems very viable...

Overall.. today is good... QE is over... and now its a case of finding a reasonably entry.. and shorting down to 1920s. Whether we can break <1900.. .that will remain the ultimate question into early November.


3.45pm... sp'1984 ..... right on schedule....

Double micro-top of 1990... early tomorrow... then I'm shorting this market... with some high confidence.

.. back at the close.