Volatility remains high

Despite equities bouncing to an afternoon high of sp'1876, the VIX managed to hold the mid 20s (intra low 24.61), settling -4% @ 25.20. Near term outlook is for renewed equity weakness, and VIX back in the 29/31 zone.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffice to say.... VIX looks set for another wave higher.. before probably putting in a short term top....(at least until mid November).

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If sp'1600s.. then VIX will break into the 40s by late November, a level we've not seen since the major equity drop of Aug-Oct 2011.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities saw a very mixed day, swinging from pre-market lows of around -40pts @ sp'1822, an early afternoon peak of 1876, and settling u/c @ 1862. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.1% and +1.2% respectively. Near term outlook is bearish into the weekend.


sp'60min

Summary

... and another wacky day comes to a close in market land.

A pretty powerful ramp from those pre-market lows, but.. with a little latter day weakness.

A marginal lower low <1820 looks very viable tomorrow.. if not early Monday. A break back into the low 1900s then looks likely.

As I will continue to note, it is at the top of the next multi-day bounce that things get real interesting.
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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - weakness into the close

US equities look set for renewed weakness into the close, which should see VIX back in the upper 20s. A further wave lower, breaking the sp'1820 low looks likely, before a sustained bounce can begin. Oil is holding gains of a rather significant 1.3%


sp'15min

sp'daily5b

Summary

*chart 5b, best guess... a marginal new low.. and then.. UP UP UP.
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A somewhat tedious day... having swung from a pre-market low of around sp'1822 (sp -40pts) to an intra high of 1876.

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*I will hold short overnight, seeking an exit somewhere under 1830 tomorrow. Trying to get an exit in the 1820/10 zone... won't be so easy.


3.28pm It remains choppy, but underlying pressure remains down.

Seeking a close in the 1858/54 zone.. with VIX 26.50/27.50


3.42pm... Weak...chop.... a close in the 1850s still looks viable...

Notable weakness; TWTR, -3.3%