US equities remain significantly lower, having broken a new cycle low of sp'1820, with VIX 31s. There remains high likelihood of another wave lower, before the bull maniacs can sustain some degree of sustained rally. Key resistance is now the 1920/50 zone.
sp'daily5b
Summary
*the above count is merely my vain attempt to make some sense of this. It is to be treated 'lightly'...no doubt some of you could detail a hundred valid reasons to disagree with it.
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A break below today's low of 1820 does seem likely, with a key floor somewhere in the 1815/00 zone. The issue then is... 'what about upside?'
Now that we've fallen so far below the old 1900 neckline, the notion of a H/S formation is DROPPED... and thus 1990/70s are out. More likely, we'll get stuck in the 1920/50 zone...before an even stronger move down in November.
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Anyone with doubts should go stare at the following monthly chart for the rest of today...
sp'monthly3f
We're headed for 1650 or so... some kind of back test of the old 2000/2007 double top.
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updates...into the close....
3.18pm.... afternoon bounce to 1855 looks done.. .and we're already -10pts again...
Friday opex for a key turn? Would be unusual, but...it'd fit... with the current price action.
3.26pm... hourly 10MA remains key resistance, early tomorrow.. that will be around 1820... and it really isn't too hard to envision 1815/00 zone.. with VIX 30s again.
Notable weakness: FCX -3%, with Copper u/c @ $3.00
3.33pm.. Bears getting short-stopped out.... sp' 1858.... VIX 25s.... regardless... its just another wacky intra bounce.
Still look headed for 1815/00 zone on the next wave.
Notable strength: R2K +0.7%.....
3.42pm... R2K +1.2%..... VIX still cooling +9% in the 25s.
Wild swings, but then... to be expected.
3.51pm.. Well, its been a long day.... the bigger picture is absolutely clear.... and for me, that is what matters... but more on that later...
back at the close.
