Closing Brief

US indexes broke a new cycle low this morning of sp'1925, but ended up soaring, settling +33pts @ 1968. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by a very significant 0.9% and 1.9% respectively. If the Monday high of 1977 is broken over, t will be white flag waving time.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Pretty much a crazy fed inspired 'we're concerned about....don't worry about us raising rates'.

There sure were some wild price moves out there, not least in the miners.. but see my 'fair value' page for more on that sector.

The daily index candles are of the bullish engulfing type.. with a pretty strong spike-floor.

Arguably, the last line in the sand is sp'1977.. after that.. there is only the 2019 high.

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*I'm still not running on 'full power' you could say, hell, I didn't even remember the FOMC minutes were due at 2pm today. Hopefully I'll be fully recovered by next week... urghh.
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I'll post something to wrap up the day at 8pm EST.

3pm update - Fed inspired short stop cascade

With the FOMC minutes convincing the market that the Fed now wants a soft USD... its spooked almost all equity bears.. and a rather huge short-stop cascade has occurred, lifting the market from an early low of sp'1925 to a recent peak of 1961. Crazy...... pure crazy.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

One of the strongest hourly ramps we've seen in some time..

Equity bears MUST hold a daily close under descending trend..currently 1965.

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Meanwhile..over on CNBC.. they are now asking is this the time to start buying stocks....

Notable HYPER strength: miners, GDX +5.6%... the biggest gain I can remember in a VERY long time.... However, GDX break the 2013 low.. earlier this morning.


3.14pm... Well... a simple Fed press release.. and havoc across the US capital markets.

The move in the miners will no doubt get some serious attention this evening... and no doubt the floor callers will be out again (although seen one)... but unless you think metals have floored..just a few days ago... then its makes ZERO sense to assume miners have floored.
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VIX -10% .. 15.40s. .and the earlier 18s  now look a long way up...even with 2 days left of the week.
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3.30pm... We're at the declining resistance/trend...

A daily close >1965 would be a problem for those in bear land... although that seemed the case early Monday morning.


3.37pm.. Bullish engulfing candles ALL over the place on the daily charts... bodes VERY badly for bears.

A daily swing of 41pts (2.1%).... disturbing.... with VIX -12%.... 15.10s.


3.43pm.. .sp'1968.. .and there goes trend/resistance... next level is the Monday opening high of 1977.

GDX +8.1%.... biggest gain I remember since the 2011 bubble peak.

2pm update - afternoon bounce

US equities are moderately higher, with a little short-stop cascade underway. Regardless, a new cycle low of sp'1925 has been achieved, with confirmation via VIX 18s. As has been the case since the Alibaba IPO... bounces are to be treated as just that... bounces.


sp'60min

Summary

*typical turn time is 2.30pm of course.. so lets see if this latest nonsense wraps up then.
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Holding to target downside of 1915/10.... the August low of 1904 is VERY viable, with still 2 trading days left of the week.

Notable weakness: CHK -3% @ $20...  like most in the energy sector, its getting crushed.


2.03pm... this cascade of short-stops getting hit...   pretty strong

2.13pm.. urghhh. its a short-stop massacre.... a 28pt swing.....

2.22pm... Well, this is volatility...something many have been longing for.... not so fun now huh? lol

Seriously though.... almost 2.30pm... cyclically... we tend to max/floor then.


2.29pm.... being so ill.. (yeah, its true)... I had completely forgotten that the Fed maniacs issued an FOMC press release at 2pm.

Regardless.. its now typical turn time.

Equity bears MUST halt this madness <1965...