Volatility retraces into the weekend

With equities building moderate gains, especially in the latter part of the day, the VIX continued to melt lower from the Thursday high, settling -5.0% @ 14.85. Near term outlook offers a jump into the 17-19s... the 20s still look difficult, even if sp'1930/20s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

*despite falling into the weekend, the VIX saw a weekly net gain of a very significant 22.6%
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It was not surprising to see equities rally today, and indeed, my original target zone was for a retrace to 15/14.80. The afternoon low of 14.31 was marginally surprising.

Considering the truck load of technical breaks on Thursday, I'm now seeking further VIX upside, which should at least take the VIX to 17, perhaps 18/19s. The 20s still look difficult though.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +16pts @ 1982. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.2% and 0.8% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed downside, breaking the Thursday low of 1965, with first target zone of 1950/40s.


sp'60min

Summary

...and another week in market town comes to a close.

Certainly, no one can say this week was boring. We've seen continued weakness from the Alibaba high of sp'2019.. down to 1965... with an end week bounce to 1986.. but cooling a little into the close.
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*I am holding short across the weekend, seeking 1950/40s... with a 'best bear case' target zone of 1920/00.
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Have a good weekend everyone.
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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - bounce complete?

US equities have continued to climb, with the sp' breaking above the recently broken floor of sp'1978. The VIX is lower by a rather significant -8% in the 14.30s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$6, with the miner ETF of GDX -1.8%


sp'15min

VIX'15min

Summary

No doubt this afternoons little wave into the sp'1980s has really rattled many of the bears, but still, it does not negate what happened yesterday.

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*I am short, will hold across the weekend. With the weekly MACD cycles continuing to tick lower, next week looks promising for at least a move down to 1950/40.


3.26pm  sp'1983....   VIX 14.50s....

Interesting day huh?