Volatility powering upward

With equities failing to hold the rather critical floor of sp'1978, the VIX broke into the 15s.. and just kept climbing, settling +17.8% @ 15.64 (intra high 16.69). Near term outlook is offering the 18/19s. A weekly close >17.50 would be a huge sign that a grander turn has occurred.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

More than anything right now, I will be looking for a weekly VIX close above the weekly 200MA... that has not occurred since late 2011.

So...at the Friday close.... look for above/below 17.50. It doesn't have to happen tomorrow/this week, but certainly viable by next Friday.
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more later...on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities saw some significant declines, with the sp -32pts @ 1965, having decisively broken the key floor of 1978. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.4% and -1.6% respectively. Near term outlook is now bearish.


sp'60min

Summary

Suffice to say.. with so many technical breaks today, the market has strongly turned in favour of the equity bears.

Primary downside target zone is 1920/00... back to the August low.

If that zone is reached, it offers up a severely bearish fourth quarter.
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More later... on the VIX

3pm update - a day for the bears

Regardless of the closing hour price action, today has been a day for the equity bears. There have been so many technical breaks... more notably on the bigger weekly and monthly cycles. Interesting days are ahead.


sp'15min

Summary

There remains chance of a bounce into the mid 1980s...although I realise some are seeking a more conservative back test of the broken neck line of 1978.
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15min MACD cycle is now positive, and could easily rally into the close, but the mid 1980s look 'best case.

For me, a VIX weekly close >17.50 would be a massive sign that sp'2019.. the 'Alibaba top' was indeed a key market peak.

So....its the closing hour.. lets see how far the bulls can push. Certainly, some bearish day-traders will be closing out, and that will help to push prices back upward.
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3.35pm  Still a viable bounce to back test the broken sp'1978 floor... which seems not viable until early tomorrow.

back at the close............