Volatility climbs into the close

Whilst US equity indexes saw broad weakness across the day, the VIX opened higher, with a further mini surge into the close, settling +9.1% @ 14.93. Near term outlook offers a gap fill in the 15s, before renewed downside back to the 13/10 zone.


vix'60min

vix'daily3

Summary

It was a pretty interesting day in VIX land. The VIX opened higher, but immediately started to cool, and even though equities slipped across the day, the VIX only managed to surpass the opening high in the closing minutes of the day.

There remains a pretty clear price-gap zone in the 15s... which might equate to sp'1980/78 early Wednesday morning.

Right now, I would be VERY surprised if VIX can put in a daily close in the 16s or higher.
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more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed moderately lower, sp -11pts @ 1982. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.8% and -0.9% respectively. Near term outlook is for at least a bounce to 2000/2010, bears are so far yet to break the series of higher highs and higher lows.


sp'60min

Summary

*a pretty weak closing hour, with bulls still failing to claw back above the hourly 10MA.
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So.. the broader market closes lower for the third consecutive day. No doubt some will be touting a major down wave to come.

Further, there will be the usual cherry picking of the weakest index - the R2K, to justify all manner of 'here comes the crash' scenarios.

For now, I simply can't subscribe to any such intermediate bearish outlook, it remains the SAME talk, from the same people that we've heard for months...and in some cases... years.
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more later.. on the VIX

3pm update - still slowly sliding

US equities continue to slowly slide, with more notable declines (not surprisingly) in the R2K, -0.9% @ 1119. VIX is holding moderate gains of 6%, but still below the opening spike high of 14.83.


sp'60min

R2K, daily

Summary

Interesting day, and at least no one can complain its been boring since Friday morning.

The weakness in the R2K remains much the same as it has since the spring... and it remains bizarre how many of the cherry pickers have moved from touting the Dow as the big bearish index..to the R2K.

What will it be next year, the Nasdaq?
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3.12pm.. First upside target remains the hourly 10MA.. currently 1990.

Most notable aspect of the entire day remains.. VIX.. which has had a divergence to the declining indexes across the entire day.

VIX is NOT confirming any of the underlying weakness.

There remains a gap in the 15s, but still... even that looks difficult to hit.


3.27pm... sp'1987... 33mins to go... bulls need 4pts to decisively clear the 10MA


3.42pm.. sp'1988... bears can't say they didn't get at least a good six hours to exit today.

At the current rate, the hourly MACD cycle will turn positive by tomorrow lunch time...at which point we will probably be in the 2000/2005 zone.

BABA remains weak, -3%