Volatility battles into the teens

With US equities continuing to slip across the day, the VIX built rather significant gains, settling +13.0% @ 13.69. However, with the broader equity upward trend still intact, the VIX is set to remain within the 14/10 zone for some weeks to come.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

So... the VIX climbed.. but we're not even in the mid teens.

Equity bears need to be especially mindful to keep today's jump in volatility in perspective. The broader trend in the VIX continues to be a series of lower spike-highs.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities saw some notable weakness, with the sp'500 settling -16pts @1994. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, closed by a significant -1.4% and -1.5% respectively. Near term outlook is for rising support @ 1990 to hold, with renewed upside.


sp'60min

Summary

A somewhat tiresome start to the week, not least for those who were holding long across the weekend.

Certainly, paired with the Friday drop, this is the biggest 2 day decline since early August. Yet.. in the scheme of things... since we were breaking new historic highs a mere one trading day ago, equity bears really need to keep things in perspective.

The broader trend remains to the upside.
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more later.. on the VIX
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For the Volcano doomers out there, just found a new live stream...


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3pm update - another attempt to floor

US equities remain very weak, with significant declines of -1.2% and -1.4% for the Trans/R2K respectively. VIX is holding gains of around 14%, but is so far unable to attract interest into the 14s.


sp'60min

Summary

Clearly, another attempt at a floor is underway, with a somewhat spiky candle on the hourly chart.

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Unquestionably though, today has been a day for the equity bears, especially in terms of the two market leaders - Trans/R2K, the latter of which has seen a death cross, and is getting some mainstream attention.

Overall, I can't take the declines that seriously.

Key support is currently rising trend @ 1990.
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updates into the close...


3.10pm.. Despite the metals largely flat.. .there is notable weakness in the miners. GDX -2.6%... absolutely dire on every cycle.

Coal miners are equally dire, with ACI, ANR, and WLT all now in the $2s... incredible.


3.25pm.. sp'1990 holding... just. Its pretty important, won't take much of an overnight gap lower to take it out.. and that opens up last weeks 1978 low. If that fails...then... something new is going on.

Interesting to see how rattled the cheer leaders are on clown finance TV are today. One day down day after Friday's new highs.... they sure do get upset easily.


3.39pm.. a close of 1995 or higher.. would be some minor consolation to the bull maniacs


3.43pm.. Bears being short-stopped out... 1995... and rising.

With $1.7bn of QE tomorrow... bears face the usual problem.

Best guess.. we close Tuesday 2005/10. The issue then is... new highs by end week...or a lower high? Considering the broader outlook... I still gotta think we're headed higher.

*holding LONG-index overnight...

back at the close