Thursday, 18 September 2014

Volatility continues to slide

With equities continuing to break new historic highs, the VIX continued to slide, settling -4.9% @ 12.03. Near term outlook is for VIX to remain within the 13/10 zone. The big 20 threshold increasingly looks unlikely to be hit until next year.


VIX'daily3


Summary

Little to add.

Not surprisingly, with equities gaining for the third day, the VIX saw a third day of declines.

VIX remains very subdued, and the 20s look increasingly unlikely until next year.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed higher for the third consecutive day, sp +9pts @ 2011. Notably, the sp' and Dow both broke new historic highs. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.3% and 0.5% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish.


Cut to the left

sp'daily5


Summary

..and another day comes to a close.

Equity bears remain especially weak, and it was notable that today was a daily close above the giant sp'2000 threshold

With new historic highs in the Dow and sp'500, there is simply nothing for the bears to hold onto. We look set for the 2030s within a week or two.. and as many are now starting to accept.. the 2050s look a reasonable target for October.

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - the sun sets on the Kingdom

The sun has set over the United Kingdom... probably for the last time. Things could be very different tomorrow morning... and the implications for the rest of Europe are pretty damn serious. Regardless of any index action into the close.. a very long night is ahead for some.


The sun is setting, not just on the empire.... but the Kingdom
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sp'daily5


Summary

We look set for the third consecutive day of gains... and it will make for a rather bullish week. The weekly cycles continue to suggest 2030s in the near term...certainly by end month.
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...updates into the close


3.07pm.. looking at the micro 5/15min cycles.... first support is around 2004 early tomorrow.

Certainly, the big 2000 threshold looks pretty secure.

It should probably concern the bears that the best we saw in the previous down cycle was a mere VIX 14s. 


3.29pm.. market in melt mode... no sellers....shorts covering.... pretty standard conditions.

In theory, the 2020s are viable tomorrow, with a VIX weekly close in the low 11s