Volatility fails to hold gains

With equities slipping to a lower low of sp'1982, the VIX broke higher to 14.06, but with a latter day recovery (if minor), the VIX settled -4.6% @ 12.88. Near term outlook offers a possible VIX spike high in the 15s, before melting back lower.


VIX, daily3

Summary

Suffice to say.. if we see sp'1972/00 in the next 2-3 trading days, it should equate to VIX in the 15s... which would likely make for a natural key cycle turn.

On any reasonable outlook, VIX 20s look unlikely in the near term.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed a little higher, sp +7pts @ 1995. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and +0.6% respectively. Near term outlook offers the low sp'1970s, with VIX 15s... before new highs later in the month.


sp'15min

sp'60min

Summary

*price structure on the 15min cycle shows the baby bull flag, which break upward in the closing hour.
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Overall, yet another choppy day, although yes.. we did break a slightly lower low of sp'1982.

All things considered, I'd still guess we eventually floor in the low sp'1970s, where there are many aspects of support.
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meanwhile... over at Mt Doom (Iceland)



Continued sig' quakes in the 5s at Bardarbunga, and the caldera continues to sink.. a major explosion seems very likely. As ever, that event could be hours... or months away. Volcanoes are even harder to predict that the equity indexes!

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more later.. on the VIX

3pm update - very marginal situation

Equities continue to see minor chop. Price structure on the micro 5/15min cycles is a baby bull flag.. with target upside to around 2000. Equity bears should be content with any daily close <1993. Metals remain weak, Gold -$8


sp'15min

Summary

*seen on the smaller 15min cycle, its a clear bull flag.

On any basis, today is merely just another day of minor chop

Problem for the bears tomorrow.. QE of $2bn in the morning, that sure won't help.

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*I continue to hold a minor long-index block from sp'1991... will consider adding if we see the 1970s.


3.07pm.. baby bull flag is being confirmed.. with a move to 1995. A daily close in the 2000s would understandably dismay many bears.. and would make for a bullish engulfing candle on the daily cycle...


3.41pm.. sp'1996.... a real tedious day....

Perhaps 2000/2005 by 11am tomorrow... and then 1970s Friday?

Regardless, nothing for anyone to get excited about today.