Minor gains for the VIX

With equities seeing a touch of weak chop in the closing hour, the VIX managed minor gains, settling +1.3% @ 11.78. Near term outlook is for the VIX to remain within the 12/10 zone into early September.


VIX'daily3

Summary

The broader downward trend is holding, but clearly, there is always going to be a threat of a 2-3 day jump.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) is turning upward, but it will likely take another 3 days or so to get a bullish cross, and even then, it could easily fail on the first attempt.

On any basis, VIX looks set to remain low for a few more weeks, not least if sp'2050 or even higher.
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more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed fractionally mixed, sp'500 u/c @ 2000. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and -0.2% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued minor upside into the Friday/monthly close.


sp'60min

Summary

*price structure is a bull flag on the hourly cycle, and does bode for upside tomorrow morning.
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..and another very quiet day comes to a close.

Certainly, there were some interesting moves in a few stocks, but overall...it is a market devoid of any decent price action.

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*I hold long overnight, via a weak SDRL (already an annoying position, urghh)
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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - melt into the close

Equities look set for micro melt into the close, after yet another quiet day. Metals/miners are flat. VIX will probably close fractionally lower (why wouldn't it?).. with the 10s as a viable weekly close.


sp'60min

Summary

*hourly bollinger bands are getting super tight.. 2003/1996. Usually suggestive of a break..one way or another. Considering the broader trends..the Thursday break would be to the upside.
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No reason to expect much price action in the closing hour for the main indexes.
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As for tomorrow, it will largely depend on how the market deals with the revised GDP for Q2. Even if the number if revised a little lower, with such low' volume...will anyone even notice?

Overall.. market looks set for minor upward chop into the Friday/monthly close.
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3.43pm.. price structure on the 15/60min cycles... a bull flag.

I realise some are still calling for the 1980s..before 2050... but still..we look likely to close the week in the 2010s..with 2025/30 next week.