Volatility slips into the weekend

With US indexes seeing minor chop into the Friday close, the VIX was naturally muted, settling -2.5% @ 11.47. Near term outlook is for sp'2010/20s, which should equate to VIX 10s. The VIX saw a net weekly decline of -12.8%.


VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

*the 10th daily decline in 11 days
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A third consecutive net weekly decline for the VIX. The recent peak in the 17.50s now looks a long way up, and we might not be at those levels again until October.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US indexes ended the week on a subdued note, sp -3pts @ 1988. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled u/c.  Near term outlook remains bullish, with the sp'2000s still likely, with broader upside to 2030/50 by late September.


sp'60min

Summary

So... a third consecutive net weekly gain for the sp'500.

It is highly notable that the upper weekly bollinger will be in the 2030s next week (its climbing around 10pts a week).. it won't be too hard for the bull maniacs to push the market into the 2010/20s by early September.

For me, the only issue is whether we can hit 2030/50 zone before October.

I realise for many out there... it remains a tough market to remain level headed about...

*I remain on the sidelines...for me..that is probably the better policy right now.

Have a good weekend everyone
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more later.. on the VIX

3pm update - minor chop into the weekend

Despite Jackson Hole, it turned out to be a rather dull end to the week. The sp'500 looks set for next weekly gains of around 1.75%....and a further 1% looks very viable next week. Metals are ending the week on a minor bounce, Gold +$3, whilst Oil is still -0.4%


sp'60min

Summary

The broad upward channel from the Aug'7th low of sp'1904 continues to comfortably hold.

Sure, the bulls failed (a little surprising) to break sp'2000 today, but overall, net weekly gains of 1.75% are very decisive on any basis.

VIX looks set to close the week on a down note... it will make for the 10th daily decline in 11 days.


3.13pm.. hourly MACD (blue bar histogram) looks floored. Nothing decisive yet, but considering the underlying trend, Monday looks set for further upside.

The sp'2000s have taken longer than I thought likely (sure seemed viable in July)...  but...anyway...next week. Shouldn't make any difference to those still holding long-indexes.

VIX turns red... -1.4%.. low of the day.


3.34pm.. The minor chop continues...

Dow set for a net weekly gain of around 2%... 350pts or so....a powerful gain.