Volatility manages minor gains

With the main market seeing some mixed chop across much of the day, the VIX managed to push a little higher, settling +2.8% @ 11.84. Near term outlook is for the VIX to slip back into the 10s, not least if market breaks into the sp'2000s.


VIX'daily3

Summary

Little to add. The intraday spikes on the VIX remain embarrassingly small. It took the loss of a passenger jet and Israeli battles just to hold the 15s for a single trading hour...

Q. What will be necessary to get the VIX back into the 20s?

With my broader outlook to the sp'2130s, I'd have to guess we probably won't see VIX 20s again until next year.

Certainly, I have zero interest in going long the VIX for some months.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US indexes closed with minor mixed chop, sp +0.9pts @ 1987 - with a new intraday high of 1991. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and -0.2% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish into next week.


sp'60min

Summary

*earnings due from AMZN
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So.. a bit of a choppy day.. but with another new historic high in the sp'500.

I hold moderately long overnight, via the R2K.
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*Clown finance TV interview at 5pm EST, Liesman and King O'... the primary topic will be the economy/business.  No doubt the algo-bots will be quietly...listening.
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more later.. on the VIX


4.22pm.. AMZN earnings... lousy .. a loss of 27 cents per share....vs. 15 loss .. expected.

It remains a joke of a company, the height of 'crony capitilism', with arguably the worse board of directors in the western world.

Global turnover of $70bn or so, and they still can't turn a profit.

AMZN -5.5%....but.. as ever...it often reverses on the day after earnings.

3pm update - upward pressure into the close

US equities look set for claw higher, with a very viable close in the low sp'1990s. Without question, it has been another day for the equity bulls. Metals remain weak, Gold -$14. Oil is similarly weak, -0.9%.


sp'daily5

Summary

*5/15min cycles look floored, and hence I'm looking for a micro rally into the close.
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So.. we've got stuck at sp'1991. There is obvious channel resistance there, but still a new high.. is a new high.

The black-fail candle (8515) on the Transports yesterday is something I am wondering about.. since we got stuck at 8513 today.

Regardless...the bulls managed another new high today.
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3.18pm... chop chop... sp'1987...   smaller cycles look floored... 3pts to get a daily close in the 1990s..not that its 'necessary' of course!

Bulls have NOTHING to prove.

*notable weakness. airlines, DAL/UAL, both -2.5%....

that makes for a rather strong reversal.  Black-fail candle at the open... I was 'overly' dismissive.... of one of my own key issues.


3.37pm... indexes trying to claw higher... sp'1990... just about viable.

3.44pm.. some spike floor hourly candles.. for the indexes....bodes bullish for Friday.