VIX lacks any upside power

With equities slipping lower in late morning, the VIX spiked, with gains of 4%. With a rather typical latter day equity recovery, the VIX cooled back down, settling +1.2% @ 11.96. Near term outlook is for VIX to slip into the 10s, if not the 9s.


VIX'daily3

Summary

Little to add.

VIX remains unable to break and hold even the 13s. The mid teens look out of range, and the big 20 threshold.. looks almost impossibly out of range until (dare I say)... next year.

It remains a market that has ZERO concern about anything, whether it is economic growth, inflation, interest rates... or least of all..... middle east turmoil.
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more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US indexes closed above their late morning lows (intra floor sp'1965), settling -3pts @ 1973. The two leaders Trans/R2k, settled +0.4% and -1.0% respectively. Most notable today, new historic highs in the Dow & Trans.


sp'60min

Summary

...and another day comes to a close.

Without question, the new historic highs in the Dow and Transports this morning were very important, and such achievements negate the borderline significant weakness seen in the R2K.

Indeed, the R2K broke the 1150 level - breaking the recent Thursday low..and the 50 day MA. Yet...the daily close was somewhat back within the safety zone.
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Just something I was listening to, from Harrold.



Certainly, position sizing is a key trader issue, although far more bemusing was the CYNK trade.
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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - clawing higher into the close

US equities look set to claw higher into the close. With new historic highs in the Dow/Trans earlier this morning, equity bears have little to tout, not least with a VIX that is set to close moderately lower. Notable weakness in Oil and the precious metals.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*VIX is a bit of a mess, but looks to close somewhere in the 11s.
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Today has been arguably just another minor tease to the bears. Opening minor gains.. a little down wave to the typical floor time of 11am... and then some degree of latter day recovery.

With the Dow/Trans breaking new highs earlier today, I won't take ANY weakness seriously..
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Notable strength: DAL, +1.9%, but more on that one..after the close.


3.20pm.. very minor chop..with some inclination to the upside.

Dow is green, with a VIX +1.5%.. but the latter is still highly susceptible to being whacked lower in the closing minutes.


3,34pm.. .baby bull flag on the micro 5/15min cycles.... bullish into tomorrow... the setup is just like yesterday.