Volatility settles in the 10s

With equities ending the week at historic highs, the VIX was naturally lower, settling -8.1% @ 10.73. Near term outlook is for the VIX to remain in the 13/10 zone, but if sp'1960/70s in July, then VIX 9s will likely be hit. Across the week, the VIX declined -5.9%


VIX'daily

VIX'weekly

VIX'monthly

Summary

So..VIX has slipped into the 10s for the first time since Feb'2007.

Even the mid teens are out of range in the near term.

Of course, at some point the VIX is going to spike...and I'd guess (at some point again this year), break into the 20s...but that could indeed be some months away.

For now, I have ZERO interest in picking up any VIX call positions.
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more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

US indexes closed the week with the third consecutive daily gain, sp +8pts @ 1949. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.9% and +1.0% respectively. Near term outlook offers minor chance of a retrace, with the bigger weekly/monthly charts powerfully bullish.

The Longest Day, 6/6/44

Summary

... and another week at the worlds most twisted and pumped up casino comes to a close.

Effectively, the bulls continue the ramp from the April'11 low of sp'1814...now over 130pts lower. For those still seeking a major multi-month down wave - which still includes me, this remains a difficult... and exasperating wait.

..but hey..at least I'm not short. I will be there...when the turn eventually occurs.

Have a good weekend everyone.
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*the weekend update will be on the US monthly indexes

3pm update - melting into the weekend

US equities look set for some micro upward melt into the weekend. The sp'500 is on track for a net weekly gain of around 1.25%, which is respectable on any basis, - not least, considering the gains already built across May. VIX looks set for a weekly close in the 10s.


sp'weekly8

Summary

8 consecutive weekly green candles, and unquestionably..the equity bulls remain in full control.

Perhaps we'll see a turn at the next FOMC (June'18), but even then, bears need a catalyst to kick the market below the primary monthly 10MA support (sp'1830s).

Right now, the only real hope for the bears is a flat/negative GDP Q2 data point, but that won't be until late July.
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yours.... at least not short.