Volatility fractionally lower

With new historic index highs, the VIX struggled across the day, settling -0.8% @ 12.13. Near term outlook is for sp'1910/20s, which will likely keep the VIX pinned in the 12/11s. The VIX looks unlikely to break into the 20s until at least mid June.


VIX'daily3

Summary

VIX remains low, and barring some sporadic 'scary news story', the market looks comfortably bullish, with another 1-3% of easy upside in the main indexes.

I should note the contracting bollinger bands on the daily cycle, a few more weeks..and the VIX will spike again, but again, even the high teens look a tough target to hit.

Personally, I will try to refrain from picking up a VIX call block (probably Oct' 20 strike), until early June.
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more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

US indexes broke new historic highs in the Dow/Trans/SP, with the sp' settling +0.8pts @ 1897. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.5% and -1.1% respectively. Near term outlook remains broadly bullish, to the sp'1910/20 zone.


sp'60min

Summary

*I hold long overnight, via a small IWM call block.
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Not the most exciting of days, was it?

All that can be said is that with another new set of index highs, the broader trend remains bullish. The daily/weekly cycles are highly suggestive of 1905/10 in the next day or two, but 1920s do not look viable until at least next week.
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more later..on the VIX

3pm update - melt into the close

After new historic highs in the Dow/SP/Trans, it makes little difference exactly where the market closes today. Whether sp'1890s..or 1900s...the primary trend remains at least moderately bullish to the 1920s within another week or two. VIX looks set to close weak..11s are viable.


sp'60min

Summary

*I will very likely hold long overnight, via a small IWM call block.
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As the lightning bolts start to hit London city this evening....lets see if the bull maniacs can achieve a daily close in the sp'1900s.

yours... not short.

*FCX continuing to build gains.. +2.4%... more on that..after the close
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3.11pm The market can't possibly fall now....

All that is missing is a unicorn...maybe I'll get lucky.
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3.18pm.. minor weak chop....with the R2K/Nasdaq most certainly set to close moderately lower, although that is still a minor retrace of what was a big jump yesterday.


3.37pm.. Well, a daily close in the sp'1900s still viable...not that it matters !

*I will hold minor long, via IWM, from R2K 1124. I'd like an exit in the 1135/40 zone tomorrow.


3.47pm.. It is notable that despite a little weakness in the R2K/Nasdaq, the VIX is still red.

back at the close.