Volatility fails to hold the opening gains

With equities weak in early trading, the VIX jumped around 8% (intraday high, 14.20), but those gains never held for long. The VIX decayed across the day, settling +2.9% @ 13.29. Near term outlook is for the VIX to remain in the 14/11 zone, not least if the sp'1900s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffice to say, another day where the opening black hourly candle on the VIX was a key warning to those on the short side.

VIX 15/16s look unlikely any time soon, and the big 20s looks difficult until at least early June.
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more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

Equities opened weak, but with the morning reversal holding, most indexes closed in a particularly bullish manner, sp +3pts @ 1884. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and -0.2% respectively. Near term outlook remains broadly bullish into the sp'1900s.


sp'60min

Summary

Yes, the Ukraine is a very valid concern, but the US market simply doesn't much care about it.
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For now, the broader weekly/monthly trends remain to the upside, although yes...underlying price momentum is STILL weakening, and the equity bears do look set for a sig' wave lower..just not..quite.....yet.

Just a few more weeks...or so.
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more later...on the VIX

3pm update - same old nonsense

For the equity bears, this is perhaps one of the most annoying starts to the week for the year so far. Not only do we have a clear spike-floor - on all daily index charts, but the market is well within range of breaking new historic highs on the Dow/SP/Trans within the next few days.


sp'daily5

vix'daily3

Summary

Frankly, the daily index candles are VERY bullish, and as ever..a spike-floor - along with a black-fail candle on the VIX..are never to be dismissed lightly.
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I remain in a tiresome mood... but I am battling away....here

*look for a daily close in the $600s.. for AAPL.
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3.28pm.. minor price chop, but the bulls look set to at least get a minor net daily gain...in the sp'1880s,. which is very impressive.


3.40pm.. For those who can be bothered...upper bol' on the daily..offering 1900/05 in the immediate term.
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For the bears out there..the only issue of note this week is the Yellen..due Wed'.. AND Thursday. It won't take much happy talk from her to give the market the excuse to break new highs.