With the market appearing to floor at sp'1850, the VIX maxed out in the gap zone of the 15.20s. With a latter day recovery in equities, the VIX broke lower, settling -0.6% @ 13.97. Near term outlook is for the VIX to melt lower to the 12/11s - if sp'1880/90s.
vix'60min
vix'daily3
Summary
Suffice to say, VIX did finally manage to reach the gap zone, at which point it has got stuck.
I do not expect a higher VIX later this week, and the 20s look out of range for some weeks, perhaps even a few months.
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US equities saw some interesting intraday swings, from opening gains to sp'1877, but being quickly eroded to 1850, and settling +6pts @ 1869. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, closed u/c and -0.5% respectively. Near term outlook is..bullish to another attempt to push >1880.
sp'60min
Summary
Interesting day, and yes, despite the weakness, I'm still resigned to higher levels. Indeed, I even picked up another two long positions.
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Where now?
Well, the hourly index cycles are offering a floor of sp'1850, and the big issue is can the market cope with QE taper'4 this Wednesday, along with whatever the GDP for Q1 comes in at. Market consensus is only 1.1% growth, which is not exactly a bold target. I'm guessing we'll at least see 1.5% or so, and you know the market will use that an excuse to rally.
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*I hold heavy long overnight (gods help the bulls now!), via CHK, DO, RIG, SDRL, and STX, the latter of which has earnings at the Tuesday close.
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The equity bulls have probably held the line - from the recent 4-5 days of 'minor weakness'..at the sp'1850 line. VIX has seemingly maxed out at the gap zone of the 15.20s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$4, but off their earlier lows.
sp'60min
Summary
Well, no one can say today was dull. Bulls opened higher..bears took over, and whacked the market from 1877 to 1850 - pretty impressive.
However, the actual price action is nothing that I'd call particularly bearish, never mind that the broader up trends are still holding on all the main indexes.
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With further QE tomorrow, the FOMC/GDP on Wednesday, and the latest 'the recovery continues' jobs data from the BLS on Friday, bulls still have a fair opportunity to attain a weekly close in the 1880/90s.
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Here comes the sun...
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updates into the close...
3.05pm.. Hourly MACD cycle offering a snap higher tomorrow, the 1880/90s are viable by late Wednesday. Bears...beware!
3.12pm.. Its getting nasty..and the VIX is about to turn red..in the 13s.. .urghhhh. Poor bears :(
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*I will hold heavy long overnight, via CHK, DO, RIG, SRDL, and STX.
3.19pm.. nasty market..with VIX red..and set to close in the 13s... with sp'1870s
For those on the short side, I realise today has turned into the mini nightmare.
3.27pm.. a 21pt swing so far....pretty intense stuff! VIX 13.80s....the horror!
3.41pm.. pure horror for those in bear land...
Suffice to say, I hold HEAVY long overnight..and am at least on the right side of things today.
