The broader upward trend remains intact

Despite some interesting equity weakness into the weekend, the broader up trend most certainly remains intact. The bears can't even get moderately excited until the recent low of sp'1814 is broken. Even then, the more important cyclical low to break is 1737.


sp'weekly8b - bullish count

Summary

The above count is a very speculative one, and would get dropped on any break <1814. As it is, I am indeed still seeking the sp'1900s in May.
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As for next week....well, I'll deal with that over the weekend. Many thanks to all those who said hello this week, it makes all the difference.

Goodnight from London
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The weekend post - late Saturday, will cover the US weekly indexes

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes closed pretty weak, sp -15pts @ 1863. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by a very significant -1.6% and -1.9% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed upside next week, with the most bullish upside target zone of sp'1925/50 by late May/early June.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

An interesting bout of weakness to conclude the week, but still, the broader market is holding the bigger upward trends.

Barring a break <sp'1814 next week, I can't take any of the declines seriously. Monday could easily open a little lower, there is a clear gap zone of sp'1845 - with VIX 15s, but for me, that would merely be a buying level - at least on an intraday basis.
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a little more later...

Volatility climbs into the weekend

With equities weak, the VIX opened moderately higher, and generally climbed (if slowly) all the way into the Friday close, settling +6.1% @ 14.13. Near term outlook offers a minor chance of upside into the low 15s, before falling back into the 13/12s.


vix'60min

vix'daily3

vix'weekly

Summary

*across the week, the VIX gained a moderate 5.8%
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Suffice to say, the VIX remains very low, despite today's moderate gains. The big VIX 20 threshold remains a considerable way higher, and I don't expect that to be hit for some weeks.
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more later...on the indexes