Volatility climbs into the weekend

With equities seeing continued underlying weakness across the day, the VIX held up strongly, settling +7.2% @ 17.03.  Across the week, the VIX gained a very powerful 22%. Near term outlook is for sp'1770s, which will probably equate to VIX in the low 20s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

Suffice to say, VIX is on the rise. The only issue is how high will the VIX spike when the sp' test the 200 day MA in the 1770/60s next week. The low VIX 20s seem a given, the only issue is whether mid/upper 20s.

The weekly VIX is suggestive of the usual resistance around the 200 MA, currently in the 18.70s.

Equity bears have not achieved a weekly close above the 200 MA since 2011. As it is, even if we do break into the low 20s next week, I'd be surprised if we close the week there.
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more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

US indexes closed the week in a poor state, sp -17pts @ 1815. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.9% and -1.4% respectively. Near term outlook is offering the 1780/60 zone by next Tue/Wednesday, which might equate to VIX in the low 20s.


sp'60min

Summary

*After a minor down cycle in the VIX, I decided to pick up 2 positions in the closing hour.

I am holding short the indexes, and long VIX, into next week. Seeking my next exit in the 1790/80s, with VIX 18/19.s
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For me, it was a VERY frustrating day. The exit at the open was good, but the market never did bounce for long, and the declines are now somewhat relentless - although, much in the style of last Friday-early Tuesday.

The weekly candles look...DIRE. Bears look sure to command next week.

Have a good weekend.
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*the weekend update will likely be on the US monthly indexes

3pm update - a weekly close for the bears

Regardless of any minor action in the closing hour, the equity bears are now assured of a very bearish weekly close. The weekly 'rainbow' charts will settle with a red candle, and that keeps open the door to 1770s next Mon-Thursday (Friday is closed).


sp'15min

sp'weekly7

Summary

It has been a busy week....next week is likely going to be....somewhat wild.

Despite 3 'reasonable' exits, today feels like utter failure. I am not in the mood to chase this crap lower, not with the threat of a whipsaw higher on Monday (not that I expect that).

To me..it all seems like a near total waste of time..for the effort involved. Oh well, at least I'm not long.
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3.13pm.. minor weak chop...sp'1818...and a VIX in the low 17s.

Even chocolates are not helping my mood right now. Where is a gods damn bounce when I need one?
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3.18pm.. bull maniacs trying to break a micro cycle upward...but..really.. how is it going to bounce now, unless some sort of mass short-covering?

So frustrating. The only level I'd consider a re-short into the weekend... sp'1827/30..maybe.


3.21pm.. Zerohedge speculating about a 3.30pm mini-ramp... .that sure won't be easy today.

Oh well, lets see if there is a brief short-cover cascade..but not long left now.


3.23pm... VIX on the slide...market 1821...but hell, that still makes for one major bearish weekly close.


3.26pm.. strongly considering..picking up a VIX block in 5-10 mins.


3.29pm.. LONG VIX from 16.90s  , seeking low 20s next Tue/Wed

3.33pm.. SHORT, via SPY, from sp'1820... seeking 1770s......

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3.36pm.. I feel better now, lol. Ahh yes...back on the short train...it is a warm and fuzzy feeling.

I will HOLD short across the weekend, via SPY puts and VIX calls....

seeking sp'1770s, with VIX somewhere in the low 20s... I suppose 23/25 is possible, if the market gets moody when it loses the 1800 threshold.


3.40pm... lets see how many of the rats sell into the weekend. After all, they know the 1770s are coming, why would they not sell?


3.49pm.. VIX back in the 17s....indexes a bit twitchy.....frankly...I'm exhausted..

3.52pm.. look at those rats SELL. They want OUT.