Volatility cools down

Despite the market breaking under the 50 day MA of sp'1838, the VIX only spiked +2% in the morning. With equities seeing a latter day recovery, the VIX cooled down, settling -4.4% @ 14.89. Near term outlook is for VIX to make a play for the big 20 threshold, if sp' 1800s..or lower.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Little to add.

VIX should find support in the low 14s this Wednesday, along with market getting stuck in the sp'1865/75 zone.

If the market does turn lower again - whether late Wed/early Thursday, VIX has a reasonable chance of spiking into the high teens. The only issue is whether the big 20 threshold can be broken..and held above.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

US indexes closed moderately higher, with the sp +6pts @ 1851.  The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and +0.8% respectively. Outlook for Wednesday is a continued bounce, but getting stuck in the 1865/75 zone, before resuming the down trend.


sp'60min

Summary

*Alcoa (AA), earnings due.
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tiring day...

suffice to say...I'm holding to the notion that this is just a bounce.

We have seen a clear 'reversal on good jobs news' last Friday morning, and the price action across Friday-Tuesday morning was some of the most consistent weakness we've seen since late January.
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Best guess.. .bounce concludes tomorrow..sometime between 11am - 2pm, in the 1865/75 zone.

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more later..on the VIX

3pm update - a minor recovery day

US equities are battling to hold moderate gains into the close. The morning break of the 50 day MA to sp'1837 remains some serious technical damage. Regardless of the close, the equity bulls are losing momentum each day. Metals are holding gains, Gold +$12.


sp'15min

Summary

The closing hour....probably minor weak chop...

On no basis do I see indexes closing under the morning low.
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I've labelled an ABC, but whatever you want to call it...I expect the bounce to continue into tomorrow.


3.14pm... minor chop continues....a close still likely in the 1850s.

3.32pm.. VIX set to close in the upper 14s.