Volatility struggling to hold the low teens

With some mild equity price swings across the day, the VIX was generally weak, settling -7.1% @ 14.02 (morning low 13.96). Near term outlook is uncertain, and equity bears will need a daily VIX close in the 16s to offer any hope of a break <sp'1834.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

*naturally, in the closing minutes, the VIX was knocked that extra bit lower.
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There is little to add. VIX remains low, and until we're back in the 16s, equity bears have little to get excited about. Even then, VIX 20s look difficult, even if the market slips to 1800/1790 - which now looks increasingly unlikely.

The one notable aspect from the daily chart, the current VIX floor of the 14/13s..is a touch higher than the 12/11s we saw at the start of the year.
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more later..on the indexes

Closing brief

US indexes saw some moderate swings across the day, with the sp'500 settling +8pts @ 1865. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.5% and u/c respectively. Near term outlook is uncertain, and market remains trapped within a tight 1883-34 zone.


sp'60min

Summary

A closing hour of very minor chop, and after the third consecutive reversal...the bulls did pretty well to get a close in the 1860s.
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Equity bears need to keep in mind that we're barely 1% from the historic highs, with two sig QE-pomo for Wed/Thursday, I'm now very concerned that we'll break to the upside.
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*I remain short, but with 'line in the sand' short-stops around sp'1884/85. If we go above there, a monthly close in the 1900s is viable, as hideous as that might sound.
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more later..on the VIX

3pm update - weakness into the close?

It has been a pretty tiresome Tuesday, not least for the equity bears, who have been teased with the sp'1850s, only to see an afternoon bounce. VIX remains weak, but the hourly cycle is offering a turn, and a daily close in the 15s would offer some small hope for Wednesday.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Barring a close <1860 - and that sure won't be easy, along with VIX 15s, it was an overly annoying day.
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Its time for the equity bears to push....its time for the closing hour!
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3.09pm.. hourly VIX MACD cycle ticking up...will go positive cycle tomorrow morning - whilst the next tranche of 'Yellen bux' are thrown at the market.

I'm starting to think the rest of this week is going to be just another 4-6 swings..driving everyone crazy.

Regardless...lets see what the equity bears can manage on this next VIX up cycle.


3.26pm.. Urghh..even the VIX 15s look..difficult.     Truly........tedious.....Tuesday.


3.35pm.. The smaller cycles are in favour of the bears into the close/early tomorrow, but really....this is most annoying day in weeks...maybe the year.

VIX 14.40...right now I'd settle for 14.70s.


3.49pm.. on the hourly equity chart..3 spike-top candles...I suppose thats something for the bears, but really...a daily close..a mere 0.9% from historic highs. Too close for comfort.

back at the close.