Volatility slightly higher

The VIX dropped into the 13s early morning, but with the market seeing an afternoon reversal, the VIX battled back, settling +3.5% @ 15.03. Near term outlook is offering upside to the 16/18 zone, whilst the 20s still look out of reach - barring any 'spooky news'.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

*across the week, the VIX declined by a very significant -15.7%.
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So..the VIX fell to the 13s for the second time this week, but closed marginally positive. As it is, I can't quite take the Friday equity reversal seriously, unless we see sp'<1850, along with VIX 16s.
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more later...on the indexes

Closing Brief

Equities saw a somewhat significant afternoon reversal, with the sp -5pts at 1866. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.4% and -0.5% respectively. Near term outlook is mixed, with the weekly charts back to bullish, whilst the smaller cycles are suggestive of weakness next Monday.


sp'60min

 

Summary

*I exited a small SPY put block in the closing 10 minutes (fractional loss), but remain HEAVY short the indexes, via SDS
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..and another week at the world's most twisted casino comes to an end.

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What to make of this week?

Bulls can tout a fractional new high in sp'500, with a notable swift claw back of half the declines from the FOMC snap lower to 1850.

Bears,  the Friday reversal is kinda interesting, but unless we see a break <1850 early next week, it counts for nothing.
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I appreciate all those who did say hello this week, it makes a real difference, and I do like to be challenged, especially if I'm in a particularly bearish mood ;)

Have a good weekend everyone!
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*the weekend update with be on the US weekly indexes

3pm update - weakness into the weekend

We have a clear reversal from the fractional new high of sp'1883. With the break back into the 1860s, the bulls are getting a touch spooked. VIX is making a play for the 15s, 16s look out of reach. Metals are holding moderate gains, Gold +$8.


sp'daily5

vix'60min

Summary

*I really would like to see the VIX 15s, to be able to take this reversal seriously.
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So..its quad-opex...expect some wild chop this closing hour, and as ever the question is....

'who wants to go long into the weekend?'....
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I remain heavy short -via SDS (my core block came within 2 cents of getting hit at the open).

I may offload a secondary short block into the close, if we trade down to 1860/55, although that currently looks unlikely.

updates....into the close!


3.05pm... VIX 15s....finally!  Now. .can sp break <1860s....

Wild hour ahead.


3.13pm.. chop chop....one thing is for sure..we ain't closing in the 1880s, not that the 1860/70s are much good for those on the short side.

I guess bear hopes are now turning to how we trade next Monday.

*it remains notable, out of the 6 trading days left of March, 2 have sig' QE. Make of that..what you wish.


3.20pm.. right now, best bear case for the close is 1857....but it won't be easy!


3.30pm.. just who is buying here? We have two spike-floor candles on the hourly, and VIX has lost the 15s again...urghh

Oh well, still 30mins to go...closing at the low of day..would really help.


3.37pm.. here we go again..another push lower..... VIX 15s

3.45pm... best case remains a close of 1860/57....with VIX 15.25 or so.


3.50pm... EXITED secondary short block.. spy puts..fractional loss... I want OUT!


3.54pm... will hold SDS across the weekend, and that is now 2% above the earlier low.... so I'm still on the bear train, but i'm outta the crazy puts for the weekend.

Been one hell of a week to go start going short again..back at the close!