Volatility continues to climb

With US equities still broadly weak, the VIX managed to climb into the weekend, settling higher by 9.9%, @ 17.82 (intraday high of 18.22). If the sp'500 can bounce from the 1835/25 zone into the next FOMC, the VIX will cool back to the 15/14s, before the next surge...into the 20s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

*probably the most notable aspect of the week, the VIX weekly gain of 26.3%
--

As many have recognised, 2014 is going to be a year of increased volatility.

VIX looks set to break the 2013 high of 21, within the next few weeks. Once we see VIX 22, there is open air to the 2012 high of 27. Whether we'll see the 30s, or even 40s this spring/summer (with sp'1600/1500s), that IS the ultimate question.
--

more later...on the indexes

Closing Brief

US indexes saw weakness into the close, sp' -5pts @ 1841. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.1% and +0.4% respectively. Near term outlook is for a minor bounce to the 1865/75 zone into the FOMC announcement of next Wednesday afternoon. From there.... the real fun should begin.


sp'60min'1c

Summary

*the closing hour was indeed somewhat weak, with a marginal break into the 1830s.
--

So...we've swung from 1882 on Tuesday.. down to the 1830s, with the VIX breaking into the 18s.

All things considered, the market 'tremors' continue to increase, and we're headed a long way lower, first primary target is the Feb' low of 1737.

The usual bits and pieces across the evening.

Have a good weekend everyone!
--

*the weekend post will be on the US weekly indexes

3pm update - weakness into the close

There is next to zero reason why anyone will want to be going long the market into the weekend. It won't take much to achieve a weekly close in the sp'1830s, and that will provide an important weekly bearish warning. VIX is comfortably building gains...in the 17s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

So....weakness into the close....and maybe we'll even see VIX 18s..with the sp'1830s.

From there..I really hope we can bounce to form a RS into next Wednesday - around 1865/75.

I remain looking to launch a major re-short, but only after the next FOMC announcement.
--

updates into the close.......


3.01pm... sp'1840..and we're about to break into the 1830s.  Lower bollinger on the hourly is offering 1833/31 by the close.

3.17pm... sp'1841....the 1830s must surely be due this hour...

a little 7/10pt drop in the last 45/30mins....as the rats 'jump ship'...into the weekend.

*I'd still guess we rally on Monday...to Wed'


VIX 18.12.      19s with sp'1834  ?
--

A major VIX smack down on Monday seems viable..as the market rallies..post Crimea vote.

VIX longs.........beware!


3.37pm... 5min index cycle...set to roll over into the close....the 1830s still look due.


3.51pm.. rats EXITING into the weekend..here come the 1830s.

3.54pm.. look at those rats selling....they fear the Crimea.

Irony is..we'll probably rally across Monday....

Again...those long VIX are getting a fine chance to exit here in the 18s.