Volatility climbs a little

With US equities generally pushing upward, the VIX remains at very low levels, settling today +2.3% @ 14.21. The near term outlook remains for the VIX to stay within a tight 15/12 zone, before climbing after the next FOMC.


VIX'daily3

Summary

Little to add. If the market is not pleased with the jobs data tomorrow, there is risk of a minor (and brief) jump to the mid 15s. Certainly though, the 16s look out of range.

The big 20 threshold looks unlikely to be broken until April.
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more later. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US indexes closed somewhat mixed, sp +3pts @ 1877 (new intraday high of 1881). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.0% and -0.1% respectively. Regardless of the Friday open, the broader trend remains to the upside, probably at least to the next FOMC.


sp'60min

Summary

*Nothing can be discerned from the slight closing hour weakness. Frankly, it barely rates as noise.
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Price structure is arguably a baby bull flag..with upside to the 1890s viable as early as tomorrow. Other than that..there just isn't much to note.

Have a good evening!
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more later..on the VIX

3pm update - churn into the close

US indexes continue to churn ahead of the monthly jobs data. However, the moderate gains are still notable, and we have the Transports probably within a day or two of breaking new historic highs. Metals continue to slowly build gains, with Gold +$13.


sp'60min

Summary

*possible baby bull flag on the hourly chart, with first soft support in the mid 1860s.
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I'm not expecting much in the closing hour. Market is obviously in a holding pattern ahead of the next jobs data.

Even if we do open Dow -100/125pts tomorrow, it'll likely rebound. Underlying price pressure remains so strong, and the weekly charts look powerful into next week.
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*I continue to watch DRYS

Kinda interesting, not least with the opening black-fail candle. I'd be tempted in the $3.80s...AFTER the jobs data, certainly not before.
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Notable weakness: STX -5.5%