Volatility a touch lower

Whilst equity indexes saw minor opex chop, the VIX was pretty weak across the day, settling -0.7% @ 14.68. Near term outlook is for the VIX to remain in a tight 15/12 zone. The big 20 threshold looks well out of range until April. Across the week, the VIX gained 8.2%.


VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

Despite the minor weekly gain, the recent trend is one of a market that has essentially no fear. Despite geo-political rumblings in a number of nations this week - not least the Ukraine, the market just doesn't care...at least not yet.
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VIX will likely remain <20 until at least early April. What will be interesting is how high it can spike on the next major wave. The VIX high for 2013 was a mere 21.91.. and we've already come close to breaking that.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

US indexes closed somewhat mixed, sp -3pts @ 1836. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.8% and +0.2% respectively. The outlook for next week remains broadly bullish, as supported by the bigger weekly/monthly cycles. VIX continues to reflect a market that is essentially fearless.


sp'60min

Summary

Certainly, it was not the most exciting of weeks, indeed..it was kinda dull. Yet...most important, we saw the bears trying to punch the market lower, but only managing some borderline significant weakness for a few hours on Wednesday.

Aside from that, the overall price action remains in favour of the equity bulls. General upside into the next FOMC of March'19 is expected.

Have a good weekend everyone.

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more later..on the VIX

3pm update - recovery rally into the close?

US indexes continue to see typical opex chop. With the smaller 5/15 minute cycles pretty much floored, there is a fair chance of a little rally into the close. Certainly though, a weekly close in the sp'1850s is now well out of range. Metals have turned around, Gold +$2


sp'15min

Summary

Seen better on the smaller 5/15min cycles, there is a possible inverse H/S setting up. So long as market doesn't go below 1834, bulls really have little to be concerned about.

Despite only being a 4 day week, this week has felt like six.
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Notable gainer: UGAZ +6.4%, a powerful weekly gain of 29.6%
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3.23pm.. .rallying into the close...yes?

The inv H/S would target 1865/70 next week..which would match up with the near term upside that the weekly charts offer.

3.35pm...continued chop..but with a slight upside bias. Will be interesting to see if we get any 'stupid closing minutes' spike. Certainly, the price action in recent days is very suggestive of it.


3.46pm... chop chop....nothing for the bears to look forward to next week. 3 sig QE-pomos, the Yellen on Thursday, and end month buying?

Notable gains in UGAZ +8.6%


3.55pm..bears getting a chance to exit into the weekend