Volatility... destroyed

With the market managing to rally - despite lousy jobs data, the VIX was crushed for the second consecutive day, settling -11.3% @ 15.29, back to the levels when sp' was trading around 1815. Across the week, the VIX declined a rather huge -16.9%.


vix'60min

vix'daily3

vix'weekly

Summary

Arguably, it is the third chart, the weekly, that is most important. Once again, we've seen the VIX attempt to break..AND hold above the 200 MA..only to fail.

This week sure was a mixed mess. The Monday break to 21.84 was particularly powerful - on the back of the sp -40pt daily decline.

As I noted at the time, despite a lower low early Wednesday morning, with sp'1737, the VIX did NOT confirm with a higher high.
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Typically, with such a huge fail/turn in the VIX weekly cycle, equities will likely rally for at least a few weeks, if not a month or two.
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more later...on those rallying indexes

Closing Brief

Despite some weakness in pre-market (sp -11pts) - on bad jobs data, the market showed strong follow through from the Thursday gains, with the sp'500 settling +23pts @ 1797. The two leaders - Trans/R2K closed higher by 0.8% and 1.1% respectively.


sp'60min

Summary

*a pretty strong closing hour, and there is now absolutely nothing for the bears to cling to.
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In many ways though.. a rough week for both sides. Bulls getting a major scare..with a Monday fall of sp -40pts, ..flooring at 1737 on Wednesday...but clawing higher into the 1790s for the weekly close.

As ever, Mr Market seems to do its best to annoy the greatest number of traders.

Thank the gods...its the weekend
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*the weekend post will be on the US monthly indexes

3pm update - Transports confirming an initial turn

The first sign of a turn is being offered by the old leader - Transports, which has flipped from a red..to blue candle in the past hour. Trans' held the broader up trend from late 2012 (R2K was the only one that broke), and 7k is now initial key support.


Trans, weekly'2

VIX'weekly

Summary

*VIX weekly remains something to keep in mind for next week. With that magnitude of a fail - at the 200 MA, it doesn't bode well for the equity bears for some weeks at least.
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So, the last hour of what has been a bit of a crazy week. We've seen the VIX break into the 21s...only to get smashed down to the 15s, as the sp' rallied from 1737 to the 1790s - despite lousy jobs data.

Any of the doomer bears who have managed to restrain themselves, and not throw a brick through their desktop screen, should consider it a major achievement.
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3.05pm.. sp'1795, bears running for their lives now..and bull chasers are appearing.

A weekly close in the sp'1800s would be a real spiteful way for the market to close the week.

*metals are picking up.. Gold +$9, currently, a weekly gain of 1.7%, but STILL stuck at the old broken support level of GLD 122


3.42pm.. micro 5/15min cycles..both bullish into the close. Regardless though, week ends in favour of the bull maniacs.. as confirmed especially by the VIX.  


3.50pm... sp'weekly..'rainbow' chart now also confirming a turn... red candle..flips blue.

back at the close.