Volatility breaks into the 20s

With the sp' breaking <1770, the market spiralled lower. The VIX settled +16.5% @ 21.44, the highest daily close since late Dec' 2012. If sp' slips to the target zone 1710/1690, there looks to be VIX upside to around 25/27.


vix'60min

vix'daily3

vix'weekly

Summary

*Without question, volatility has finally returned to the US equity markets. We have equities headed for the low sp'1700s - where the 200 day MA is lurking, but more importantly, we're set for a possible hit of the lower weekly bollinger - currently in the 1680s.
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As for the VIX, today's close was an important one, and we're just a little shy of the 2013 high of 21.91. That looks set to be broken within the next day or two..and then perhaps a challenge of the 2012 high of the 27s.

VIX looks set to peak somewhere in the 25/27 zone, whilst sp'1710/1690s...within the next 3-7 trading days.
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more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

Equity indexes all closed strongly lower, sp -40pts @ 1741. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both fell a very significant -3.2%. The primary downside target remains 1710/1690, which looks viable within a few days. VIX confirms the underlying market 'minor trembling'.


sp'60min

Summary

So..despite Sunday night/pre-market futures - offering minor gains..they sure didn't hold for more than a few minutes this morning.

With the ISM data tipping the market <sp'1770, we have a confirmation of the bear flags (see on hourly/daily charts), and we're now well on the way to the target zone.

To all those on the short side..congrats...there is more to come.

What will be important is making a good exit in the low 1700s..possible 1680s..later this week/early next week.
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the usual bits and pieces across the evening.

3pm update - major victory for the bears

Regardless of the exact close, the bears have achieved an enormous victory today, with a decisive break of sp'1770..all the way into the mid 1740s. It seems we're just a few days away from testing the 200 day MA of 1707..if not even the lower weekly bollinger - now in the upper 1680s.


sp'daily5

vix'daily3

Summary

There is ZERO doubt now. We're headed for the 200 day MA...if not the lower weekly bol.

A hit of the latter - whether later this week..or next...will arguably confirm 1850 was a key inter'3 top of the giant wave from Oct'2011.

That has huge implications for the next few months, but more on that...across the evening.
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3.03pm...Rats selling into the close....no one wants to buy until sp'1707...at least.

Mainstream cheer leaders are looking worried...'where is Yellen?'  I'm sure they'll be screaming later this week.


3.32pm.. minor chop... VIX holding 21.  Without question...a hugely important day for the bears.

What will be interesting is the power and style of the bounce..from 1710/1690.


3.48pm...rats are selling into the close...1730s look viable....even VIX 22s.

Holding to primary target downside..1710/1690...with VIX 25/27