Volatility just can't climb much

Whilst US equities saw continued minor price chop, the VIX held fractional gains across the day, settling higher by 0.16% @ 12.89. Near term outlook is for the VIX to remain in a tight 14/11 range. Indeed, if sp'1860/80 within the next few weeks, then VIX should briefly drop into the 11s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily

Summary

Little to add.

Small chance of a brief VIX spike into the 14s tomorrow - if market decides it does not like the jobs data, but really...14 seems the highest that VIX will go for some days..if not even a few weeks.

The idea of VIX >20 any time soon..seems near impossible.
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more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

It was another day of minor chop for the US indexes, with the sp' +0.6pts @ 1838. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.95% and +0.1% respectively. There is slight near term uncertainty, but the broader trend remains to the upside..as reflected in a fearless VIX.


sp'60min

Summary

We've now had around 20 solid trading hours of minor price chop..a range of barely 1%. Not exactly exciting, but then, there has been plenty of significant action in individual stocks..especially UAL, DRYS, and the coal miners.

Best guess for tomorrow?   I'd have to guess we gap higher on a 'good news is actually good news' interpretation.

Those holding short overnight, if they are lucky will get a quick washout down to 1820/18..but really, I'd only give a 20% probability of that outcome.

The fact there is sig' QE-pomo tomorrow of around $2-3bn, should, as ever, concern the bears.

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the usual bits and pieces across the evening :)

3pm update - further chop into the close, surely?

Considering the last 19 trading hours of price action, there is no reason why we won't see continued muted chop into the close - ahead of the big monthly jobs data. Metals are holding minor gains, Gold +$3, whilst Oil is -0.7%


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

The daily chart is offering a possible bigger ABC decline..with the morning peak of 1843..the B.

Regardless. baring a break <1812/10....the primary trend is absolutely still bullish.
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*As for tomorrow...worse case for the bulls...a brief washout to the 1820/18 zone...before a multi-day ramp across next week.
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A lot of pretty strong individual moves today, its been kinda difficult to just select a few...I'll cover the miners a little more in detail after the close on the Fair Value page.

UAL still cooling down, +7.5%..but hey..it is still in the $44s..a huge gain since last week.

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3.19pm.  sp'1839...a close in the 1840s would certainly open up the 1850s on a gap higher tomorrow.

Yes...there is downside still viable - to 1820/18..but the risk is towards the bears getting nuked. After all, the primary trend is UP.
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Interesting latter day recovery in RIG, from -55 to +5...hmm


3.37pm...looks like we're going to see the indexes close broadly flat...although VIX looks set to close fractionally red.

All those buying VIX calls last month..utter waste of time...as I thought. They'll be -20/30% just on the decay alone.