Volatility continues to melt lower

Despite the equity indexes being weak across the day, the VIX merely melted lower, settling -1.5% @ 13.55. The market remains effectively fearless, and VIX looks set to slip into the 12s..even the 11s by the end of this week - when the sp'500 might be at new highs.


vix'60min

vix'daily3

Summary

Little to add.

VIX remains low..and looks set to remain in the mid/low teens until late Jan/early Feb.

The only issue is whether the VIX can briefly push into the low 20s in Feb...which increasingly looks overly difficult.
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more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes closed moderately lower, sp -4pts @ 1826. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.3% and -0.8% respectively. The broader trend remains to the upside, and there is the opportunity for the equity bulls to push for a weekly close in the 1850s.


sp'60min

Summary

Arguably the most notable aspect of today, was that despite the indexes closing moderately lower, so did the VIX.

Frankly, price action looks pretty strong. The last few days is probably just a standard ABC retracement lower.

Maybe we'll drop early Tuesday to 1820/18...not that it matters much. With sig' QE this Tuesday..and Friday, we'll surely battle back into the 1840s later this week, if not even the 1850s.

I do see a short term top..somewhere in the sp'1860/80 zone...perhaps by middle of next week. From there, maybe 3-4% lower, but probably not <1810/00
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more later..on the VIX

3pm update - probable closing hour chop

The morning drop to sp'1823 might well be the floor of this sub'4 wave - of a very large 3. Regardless of how we open tomorrow, there looks to be very viable sig' upside into the 1850s by the Friday close. Metals look weak, with Gold now just +$2. Oil continues the down trend, -0.7%


sp'60min

FB, daily

Summary

*The VIX remains notable, in the red, whilst lower indexes. That is never a good sign for the equity bears.
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The levels are pretty clear..bulls need >1832, whilst bears need <1810/00 to have any hope of something significant, and I sure don't believe that is the case.
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Notable strength, FB, +4%, a break into the 60s looks viable in the current cycle.


3.42pm.. well, we're not going to close >1832..so..it keeps open the door to 1818 early tomorrow.

If we get down to 1820/18 tomorrow morning..it makes for the easiest buying opportunity of the year so far!