Monday, 30 December 2013

Closing Brief

The main indexes closed largely flat, with the sp -0.3pts @ 1841. The broad underlying trend remains bullish, and The VIX settled +8.7% @ 13.54. Market looks set to climb across the rest of the week. Metals closed the day weak, with Gold -$17


sp'60min


vix'60min


Summary

The market is naturally seeing minor chop into year end. It could also be seen a simple consolidation though, and indeed, the hourly index charts are offering what is probably just a bull flag.

We look set to break into the 1850s..whether tomorrow..or later this Thurs/Friday.

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*things remain quiet out there..so..I'll skip the normal evening wraps.

A little more later, probably at 8pm EST.


Closing video from MrTopStep


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3pm update - closing hour gains

The underlying upward pressure should be pretty obvious to most out there, and the main US indexes should close fractionally higher. Metals remain weak, Gold -$12, Silver -2.1%. VIX is higher by almost 8% in the mid 13s.


sp'60min


Summary

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) on the hourly index charts is clearly allowing a year end close in the sp'1850s tomorrow.

Yes, the VIX is somewhat higher, but I can't take it seriously, whilst there is zero power on the bearish equity side.
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Notable recovery in TWTR, now just -1%, back in the $63s.


We now have a clear reversal candle on TWTR. A net daily positive close would be very impressive for the momo chasers out there.
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3.45pm.. the index chop continues...however, there is increasing weakness in the metals..and that is bringing the miners lower.

End year tax-loss miner selling?

2pm update - VIX melting higher

The VIX jumped higher at the open, and continues to rise, now +6% in the 13.30s. However, there really isn't anything in the immediate term to suggest the market bull maniacs have anything to be concerned about. Metals remain weak, Gold -$10


vix'60min


Summary

I remain dismissive to todays gain in the VIX. Six percent of a small number, still only gives a low VIX..barely in the teens.

Later this week, if sp'1850/70s, then VIX will be in the 12/11s.
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Notable strength: STX


...headed much higher..eventually.