Volatility higher for a seventh day

With the main indexes recovering into the close, the VIX settled +1% @ 14.70, having peaked at 15.71. This was the seventh consecutive daily VIX gain, and this has not happened since at least 2003. Near term outlook is for the VIX daily cycle to rollover within the next few days.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Indeed, more than anything, it is highly notable that today was the seventh consecutive daily gain for the VIX. We've not seen this long a run in many years.

*I have looked back all the way to 2003 (as far as stockcharts offer daily candle data), and I can NOT find a consecutive upward run in the VIX of 7 days.

This is pretty amazing...am I the only one to notice?
--

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes saw some interesting weakness, but clawed higher in the closing hour, with the sp' settling -2pts @ 1792. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, closed -0.4% and -0.2% respectively. Near term outlook is choppy, but with broader upside into end year/early 2014.


sp'60min

Summary

A pretty interesting day to watch. Bears saw a new low of 1779, and bulls at least are still comfortably holding the 1770s.

Right now, the notion of anything <1770 still looks unlikely.

Broader trend remains very much to the upside, and the bigger monthly charts offer dow 16500, with sp'1840s.
-

more later..on the VIX

3pm update - recovery into the close

The earlier floor of sp'1779 is looking reasonably secure, and with the Fed book out of the way, the bulls have another opportunity to attempt to close marginally higher. The metals are holding the gains, whilst Oil is +0.9%. VIX looks to have maxed out at 15.67


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

The micro count is always a bit of a nightmare to remotely guess.

Regardless of the smaller waves..the  bigger outlook remains to the upside..all the way into spring 2014.
-

VIX sure looks done for...but equity bulls need a break of that up trend tomorrow/Friday to have confidence of new highs next week.


3.17pm.. equity bulls should seek a close above the  hourly 10MA of 1792. That would open to the door to the low 1800s for Thur/Friday.


3.32pm.. market wants to close >1795.


3.39pm.. sp'1795...battling higher...bears on the run!

3.44pm.. VIX turns red..and bulls are looking in control for tomorrow at least..possibly into the weekend.

3.54pm.. a bit of chop..but the underlying upside pressure is there.        back at the close.