Volatility moderately higher

With the equity indexes seeing another weak closing hour, the VIX managed another little spike, settling +3.9% @ 14.24 - the highest close in almost 7 weeks. There is moderate opportunity for a move into the 15/17 zone, but the 20s still look out of range until late Jan/Feb'2014.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

There is little to add, the VIX remains low..and at best..a brief spike into the 15/17 zone seems viable before end year.

Certainly though, VIX >20 looks extremely unlikely, whilst QE continues.
-

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes saw another weak closing hour, with the sp -5pts @ 1800. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.3% and -1.2% respectively. The broader term trend remains strongly to the upside, and the monthly charts are now offering dow 16500, with sp'1840s.


sp'60min

Summary

Another weak closing hour for the market, but hey..the declines are very moderate, and absolutely nothing for the equity bears to be getting overly excited about.

The recent low of sp'1777 is still a fair ways lower, and that looks difficult to break below, with heavy QE this week.

If we're in sub'4..then chop for rest of the week, with any sell side volume negated via QE ?  Probably.
--

the usual bits and pieces across the evening.

3pm update - micro ramp into the close?

The smaller 5/15min index cycles are arguably close to flooring, a little ramp into the close is viable, ahead of heavy QE tomorrow. Metals remain sharply lower, Gold -$30, Silver -4%. VIX is battling to hold a 1% gain into the close.


sp'60min (with metals)

Summary

I see some chatter out there trying to work out what is going on in terms of the micro cycles.

Really, I think it is over thinking things.

Primary trend remains to the upside...and the monthly charts are now offering Dow 16500, with Sp'1840s...this month!
--

updates into the close...


3.10pm.. price action is very muted..a close <1800.. next to impossible.

Micro 5/15min cycles continue to offer threat of a jump into the close. >1808/10


3.37pm..hmm..so much for the micro ramp..instead...a snap to 1800. Kinda interesting..but changes nothing in the bigger picture.

3.43pm..ohh the humanity. sp -0.2%.  Bears lost in hysteria..yet?
-