Volatility moderately higher

With the main indexes closing a little weak, the VIX saw moderate gains, settling +7.5% @ 13.10. Near term outlook remains unchanged, with the VIX likely to remain in the 13/11 zone. The VIX looks unlikely to break above 20 until at least mid/late Jan'2014.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

So..the VIX managed to close up, but we remain at such low levels, even a move of 10/20%..and the VIX would still be at a rather bizarre level.

As ever..on any Tuesday open, equity bears should be mindful of a black-fail candle on the hourly chart, that might suggest 'thats all folks'.

Near term outlook remains unchanged. VIX highly unlikely to break >20..until next year. Seems zero point in being on the bullish side of volatility, whether VIX calls, VXX, or the more crazy TVIX/UVXY 2x lev' instruments.
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more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes closed lower, with the sp -6pts @ 1791.The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and -0.8% respectively. Near term trend is over-stretched, but still broadly bullish. Equity bulls should find very strong support in the 1760/40 zone for the remainder of this year.


sp'60min

Summary

*the micro count on the hourly chart, I am very much holding to. If you also consider weekly'8, then it all kinda looks clear for the next few weeks..and indeed months.
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Despite the weakness in the late afternoon, it was another tough day for those on the bearish side. With Dow 16000s, and Sp'1800s, another set of short-stops will have been hit.
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With continued QE, the market remains very strong, and all micro down waves are being bought up.

The real action today was in the precious metals, and the momo stocks, both of which saw significant declines.

Nothing has changed in the 'bigger picture', and I strongly hold to my sp'weekly'8 chart outlook.
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more later..on the VIX

3pm update - another QE fuelled day

For the main indexes, it is just another day. Moderate gains..to new historic highs..Dow 16k, sp'1800. The two notable groups not involved in this party are the precious metals..and the momo stocks.


sp'daily5

FB' daily

Summary

*price action in FB is starting to get real interesting.

Have we just seen a back test of the broken channel? If so..primary target is the 200 day MA..in the low 30s. That is a very considerable way lower, and would make for an interesting short-side play into early 2014.

I'm not involved in that trade yet..but...am considering it.
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3.03pm.. ohh the humanity..the sp is -0.2%.

I can only say...don't get lost in the bearish hysteria.

Sig' QE-pomo tomorrow..and Thursday. Bears....beware!


3.13pm... looks like sub'3 wave is confirmed..and we're in sub'4...which should complete somewhere around 1787/85 tomorrow.

A sub'5 on Wed/Thursday..and then a bigger 4 down... NEXT WEEK.


3.27pm... sp -9pts @ 1789.. kinda interesting.

*watching cspan...the Bitcoin issue.. see: http://www.c-span.org/

Meanwhile..BTC 600/650.  Hmm


3.33pm.. TSLA just $10 away from my target zone. An 11% decline....wow.


3.37pm.. the target 1785/85 zone looks pretty good as support in the current down wave.

Certainly..I can only imagine 'some' of the bears touting more nonsense tonight about a collapse wave into end 2013.


3.45pm.. VIX +7%.. but still..we're only in the low 13s..and even 15 looks out of range this week.

Noting that VIX opex is the Wednesday open...it'd be surprising if we spike higher into that.

Bears should keep in mind..big QE tomorrow...and there is the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. A more sig' down wave looks viable next week, but even then...nothing major.


3.50pm.. Some interesting index disparity today..with the Dow a touch higher..but the tech is -1%.

Very much like we saw just a week or so ago.

Metals closing weak..and I'm guessing we see follow through tomorrow (I'm holding short, via SLV)
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back at the close :)