Volatility melts into the weekend

Whilst the equity indexes held moderate gains, the VIX melted lower into the weekend, settling -1.5% @ 12.19. The VIX looks set to remain in a tight 13/11 range for another week or two. VIX 20s do not look viable until Jan/Feb 2014. Across the week, the VIX declined by -5.5%


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

The VIX continues to remain low, and even the mid teens now look out of range - at least for a few weeks.

VIX looks set to remain under the key 20 threshold for the remainder of the year. There looks to be a reasonable chance for a VIX spike into the low 20s when the debt ceiling issue arises next Jan/Feb.

For the VIX traders though, there seems little point in holding/picking up any VIX bullish positions, at least until mid January.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The US indexes closed the week with moderate gains, sp +7pts @ 1798. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, closed +0.7% and +0.4% respectively. The near term trend remains strongly bullish, with a possible ceiling of 1810/30. VIX confirms a market that is almost entirely fearless.


sp'60min

Summary

..and another crazy week comes to a close in market land.

Did you have fun?
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Have a good weekend everyone!
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*the weekend posting will be on the US weekly indexes

3pm update - closing the week on a high

The US indexes look set to close the week on a high...with a small chance of the sp' breaching the 1800s. Metals are closing the week..in a subdued manner..with Oil turning negative. VIX remains vulnerable to a closing hour smack down, to settle in the 11s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

The recent low of sp'1760 is now almost 2% lower, and even that looks unlikely to be tested for some weeks...perhaps even months.

I see some more top calling out there...which of course..is surely just plain stupid.

Market has nothing to be concerned about (baring a sporadic news 'event')..until January.
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3.25pm.. market making a play for sp'1800 and Dow 16k by the close..on a 'dumb spike'.

Nasty market....only another 4-6 months to go.


3.42pm.. VIX 12.30s.... just about enough time for Mr Market to whack it lower into the 11s for the  weekly close, which can often occur almost entirely in the closing minute or two.


3.55pm.. eyes on the VIX..lets see if they bring out the magical hammer in the closing minutes.
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back at the close.