Volatility starting to increase

With the main indexes seeing a rather strong reversal at the sp'1775 high, the VIX battled higher across the day, settling +9.8% @ 13.91 - with an intraday peak of 14.14. Further upside in the VIX appears likely, to somewhere in the 14.75/15.50 zone.  


vix'60min

vix'daily3

Summary

With the break under the recent sp'1753 low, the VIX managed to finally break into the 14s...although just failed to close in them.

Near term..if sp'1730s..that probably equates to VIX upper 14s/low 15s. The 16s..look out of range.
-

more later..on those somewhat bearish indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes closed significantly lower, after opening moderately higher. The sp -23pts @ 1747, with the two leaders - Trans/R2K, sliding a very significant -1.4% and -1.8% respectively. Immediate outlook is for further weakness, down to the gap zone of sp'1735/30.


sp'60min

Summary

The first decent down day in over a month. Congrats to those short...who had a stop @ 1775..or higher.
--

Certainly, a day for the bears - not least after the opening gains, but really,  nothing has changed.

QE continues..the bigger weekly/monthly charts are still powerfully bullish. World index charts all suggest a further 10/15% upside for the US indexes by late spring 2014.

Baring a break under the 50 day MA - sp'1707..and then 1700..I can't take the declines as anything other than a minor retracement.

Don't get lost in the bearish hysteria this evening!
--

more later...on the VIX

3pm update - bears briefly in control

Equity bears have managed to take out the key sp'1753 low..and that opens up another 1 to 1.5% lower. A break under sp'1700 still seems extremely unlikely in the remainder of the year. More than anything..bears need to be mindful not to get lost...in the hysteria (much like the Twitter buyers).


sp'60min

R2K, daily

Summary

Well, it is good to see some significant red in these QE filled indexes.

It would appear highly likely the market will see follow through early tomorrow, but there is VERY high risk we'll floor in the 1735/30 zone..before the next multi-week surge in end Nov/early Dec.

..should be an interesting closing  hour....


3.15pm... market is a bit choppy..but there is underlying weakness (at least in the very immediate term)..and I'd guess we close in the 1747/43 zone. That will easily open up 1730s at the Friday open.

VIX wants to close in the 14s..with 15/16s ..max tomorrow.


3.32pm... sp'1747...no doubt now.   we close weak..and surely open tomorrow...weak.

The only issue..is where does it floor?

No doubt some bears will be posting collapse wave targets tonight..I think they are simply again getting lost in the hysteria.

Primary trend remains UP.  More on that later.


3.36pm...and there are the VIX 14s.    

3.48pm.. well, we're in my target zone.. it should set up tomorrow very well.