Volatility still on the slide

Despite the main indexes broadly closing a little lower, the VIX continues to slide, and settled -3.2% @ 13.16. Volatility looks set to decline into October, with VIX in the 12s..perhaps even the 11s. The big question now is whether VIX 20s are viable at all in the remainder of the year.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Part of the reason the VIX fell today - despite slightly lower equities, is doubtless because the uncertainty of the FOMC is now out of the way.

The daily candle was a reversal (hollow red) one, but still, I can't seriously consider that a floor indicator. Weekly equity charts look strongly bullish for next week, and I have to guess the VIX will remain at very low levels for some weeks..perhaps months to come.

For the volatility bulls out there, the next issue is whether the low from Aug'5 (11.83) will be taken out in the current down wave. Difficult to say, even if I knew where the indexes will be in mid October.

What is clear, this remains a fearless market, backed up...by the Fed.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes generally closed moderately lower, with the sp -3pts @ 1722. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, closed +0.3% and -0.2% respectively. Precious metals closed a touch higher, whilst Oil slipped around 1.6%. Despite lower equities, VIX still closed moderately lower.


sp'60min

Summary

A much quieter day after the drama of the FOMC.

What is bemusing to see are bears calling for a major reversal from here. Why would we reverse, one day after a major breakout?

I have to follow the bigger weekly trends, which are still outright bullish.
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*I remain on the sidelines, but will consider an index long in the sp'1714/12 zone, if the price action looks okay. Broad upside into the 1730s looks very likely next week.
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The usual bits and pieces across the evening.

3pm update - weakness into the close

The main indexes are generally holding minor declines, and a micro-snap <sp'1720 looks viable in the closing hour. Metals are holding flat, whilst Oil is -1.4%. Despite equity weakness, VIX is -1.9%. The bigger weekly chart looks very strong for next week.


sp'daily6

Summary

Without focusing on the smaller cycles too much, the daily chart is clearly trending upward, but we're in the twilight zone of over-stretched.

Best guess, early Friday, a retracement down to around 1714/12..before 1730s next week.
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*I am on the sidelines, will look to go long tomorrow..if the price action looks okay.

RIG..a rather sig' decline.

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*for those in Europe...go look east...Big moon rising!  Thats bullish...yes?-


3.14pm.. ohh lookie...clown finance TV wheeling out Buffett at 4pm..with secondary cheerleader..Ms. Quick.

Notable mover: AAPL +$10 in the $474s.
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3.39pm.. sp'1723, with VIX battling to the hold the 13s.

Things look on schedule. Minor low early tomorrow..then up..up. up,