Volatility jumps in the closing hour

The VIX held very minor gains for much of the day, but jumped in the closing hour after Syria war-talk spooked the US markets. The VIX closed +7.2% @ 14.99. The situation is now extremely marginal, but equity bears need to keep in mind the looming QEs of Tue/Wednesday.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Certainly, the closing hour made for a little bit of drama, after what had been a very dull and quiet day.

Both the hourly and daily cycle charts are offering further VIX upside for Tuesday, but really, the bears face the continued problem of QE. We've seen this play out a few hundred times over the past few years,and 95% of the time, the bulls will bring the market back to the upside.

So..all things considered, even if the market opens a little lower on Tuesday, I'm VERY inclined to still hold to the original outlook. Seeking a gap fill in the sp'1680s, before renewed downside to the lower weekly bollinger - currently 1564..and rising.
 
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more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes generally closed moderately lower, with the sp -6pts @ 1656. Near term trend remains slightly to the upside, and with two big QEs across Tue/Wednesday, the bears face continued problems. VIX did close higher, but remains in the 14s.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Well, I do kinda like surprises, so..despite proclaiming 'quiet end to a quiet day', it was good to see the market get twitchy on war talk.

*I remain holding to the original outlook, seeking a bounce across Tue/Wed, to the sp'1675/85 area.

I do not expect the 1690s this week, and the 1709 remains a pretty good mid-term high.

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the usual bits and pieces across the evening.

*ohh, and if you like the posts, and are a webmaster/blogger, add me to your links!

3pm update - quiet end to a quiet day

The main indexes are holding moderate gains. Importantly, the two leaders - Trans/R2K, are both higher by around 0.5% - equivalent to Dow +80pts. Bears should remain cautious ahead of two large QEs, and what remains a continued bounce from the sp'1639 low.


sp'60min

Summary

Bulls should merely be content with any close about the hourly 10MA of 1665. That looks pretty reasonable.

The only issue is whether the market can break into the mid 1670s tomorrow...I'm guessing yes.

Yet, I want a re-short in the 1680s....I remain in no hurry, during what is a subdued market.
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*a red VIX close would complete what has been another pointless day for the bears.


3.15pm..hmm, a micro-snap lower. Kinda surprising, oh well, that'll wash out the day-trading bulls. Shame.

3.25pm..seems Mr Market is upset with Kerry...and now the Ruskies are going to get annoyed.

The 50day MA has been lost...next soft support.. sp'1650.

Kinda interesting end to the day after all !


3.33pm..market trying to form a spike-floor.

I'm still not interested..not least ahead of the two big QEs.


As ever...'don't get lost in the noise'. Yes, the closing drop is interesting, but that only has most indexes -0.25%.

Bears have NO excuse to not be cautious ahead of tomorrow.