VIX melts lower into the weekend

With equities quietly melting higher into the Friday close, the VIX naturally slipped lower, closing -5.3% @ 13.98. Across the week, the VIX fell 2.7%. but importantly, did manage a higher high (16.56), and a higher low.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

As is often the case, with the equity bears exhausted, the market managed to end the week with minor gains. Laughably, once again the VIX was especially whacked an extra bit lower in the closing minutes.

My target for next Mon/Tuesday is the sp'1675/85 zone. If that is the case, the VIX will probably decline a little further, where there is a very obvious gap zone, that stretches into the low 13s.

I suppose 12s are briefly viable, but I strongly believe the market will again rollover, and then its just a matter of when...not if, the VIX will be spiking into the high teens.

VIX 20s don't look viable next week, but certainly, 'sometime' before the next FOMC of Sept'18.
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more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes melted quietly higher into the weekend, with the sp +6pts @ 1663. Further gains look likely into next week, but the market should get stuck in the 1675/85 zone, before a strong push lower..to sp'1600/1575, no later than mid September.


sp'60min

Summary

For many, a quiet end to the week is always welcome.

The market sure has struggled this week, but we're surely seeing a small bounce from the sp'1639 low...up to 1675/85.

As ever, one day at a time, but the mid-term downside target of the lower weekly bol (sp'1558..and rising)..looks on track.
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Have a good weekend everyone!

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The usual bits and pieces across the weekend
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*next main post, late Saturday, on the US weekly indexes

3pm update - melting into the weekend

The main indexes are quietly melting into the weekend, and there remains a small bias to the upside. Market still looks set to move into the sp'1675/85 zone next week. Whether that is done in one big leap on Monday...or drags out across Tue/Wednesday...we'll soon see.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

*note the VIX, doing its typical 'melt lower' into the weekend.

No point bears taking new short positions into the weekend, not least the options traders.
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I continue...the patient bear..seeking a major re-short on the indexes...next week.

A trade from the 1675/85 zone...down to the 1600/1575 level..will make all the waiting...worthwhile.
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*metals looking strong..5-7% higher to go...

GLD, daily

142s look viable